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Mesoscale Discussion 510
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0510
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...WEST LA...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128...

   VALID 300823Z - 301000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...REGENERATIVE STORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
   ACROSS EAST TX MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS /POTENTIALLY BEYOND 10Z WW EXPIRATION/. PERSISTENT
   ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER STRATIFORM REGION ALONG THE
   WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN AR SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE STORMS IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY HAVE
   BECOME CONFINED TO THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND FROM SHELBY TO
   MONTGOMERY/GRIMES COUNTY TX AS OF 0810Z. CONTINUED INFLUX OF RICH
   MARITIME TROPICAL AIR SHOULD SUPPORT REGENERATIVE DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH DAYBREAK...LIKELY EXTENDING SOUTH/EAST OF CURRENT WW.
   ALIGNMENT OF THE STORM BAND PARALLELING THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
   SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD POOL MIGHT EVENTUALLY RESULT IN PROPAGATION
   EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY.

   FARTHER NORTH...A LONG-LIVED CIRCULATION WHICH EARLIER THIS MORNING
   PRODUCED A PAIR OF TDS/S IN HARRISON COUNTY TX AND CADDO PARISH LA
   HAS RECENTLY ENTERED UNION COUNTY AR. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
   RIDING ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD OVER
   THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL REFLECTIVITY AND SFCOA MLCAPE TRENDS
   SUGGEST THIS ROTATING CELL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN AN
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES.
   FARTHER SOUTH...SHV VWP DATA HAS DEPICTED WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED NORTH ACROSS AR...SUGGESTING
   ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MESOVORTICES ARE UNLIKELY.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   32699371 33339304 33599271 33549224 33309206 32329276
               30729315 30049357 29779431 29709500 29699548 29859559
               30179556 31119465 32699371 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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