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Mesoscale Discussion 510
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0510
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 051851Z - 052045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
   FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

   DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM JUST N OF
   MIDLAND INTO NWRN TX WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING S OF BIG SPRING. WHILE
   SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER EXISTS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN TX...A
   ZONE OF CLEARING IS DEVELOPING E OF THE DRYLINE...AS WELL AS BEHIND
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. 

   CONTINUED HEATING WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OVER WRN TX
   WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. HAIL IS LIKELY
   WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...SOME SEVERE. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   APPEARS LOW...BUT CONDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
   THE POTENTIAL FOR CELLULAR STORM MODE AND MOTION INTO A LOW
   LCL/MODEST SRH ENVIRONMENT.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 05/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29290102 29620148 29700206 29690242 29700257 29800262
               30490223 30980199 31640176 32260147 32630098 32850039
               32839989 32489958 31329981 30340005 29290102 

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Page last modified: May 05, 2015
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