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Mesoscale Discussion 511
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301012Z - 301145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...EARLIER SUPERCELL THAT HAS EVOLVED INTO A SHORT-LINE
   SEGMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHEAST TX MCS.

   DISCUSSION...CLASSIC SUPERCELL EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO
   OCCURRED IN THE AUSTIN VICINITY WITH A MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 52 KT
   AT 0953Z. THIS BOW STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
   EVIDENT IN 10Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MAY RIDE ALONG A REMNANT
   WEST-EAST/ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ARCS ACROSS COLLEGE STATION
   INTO SOUTHEAST TX. WITH AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS STILL
   CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...A SWATH OF SEVERE
   WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3
   HOURS.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30369724 30579676 30679602 30689534 30579493 30279482
               29889471 29709482 29569607 29369697 29449740 30369724 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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