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Mesoscale Discussion 511
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051901Z - 052030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL...WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
   ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DRY-SLOT OVER FAR ERN NM AND
   WEST TX. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ERN NM TO THE
   WEST OF THE DRY-SLOT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE
   STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ON THE NWRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
   WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 500 TO 750 J/KG. PARTIAL CLEARING
   ACROSS ERN NM AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASE
   INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
   ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS NEAR -14C/ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 05/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   34650486 35660389 35870306 35210254 34300280 33380330
               32800367 32660425 32800496 33350537 34310506 34650486 

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Page last modified: May 05, 2015
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