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Mesoscale Discussion 511
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL OK...SCNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 123...

   VALID 072141Z - 072245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS ACROSS NRN OK AND SCNTRL KS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. AN EXTENSION OF WW 123 TO
   INCLUDE PARTS OF NW OK MAY BE NEEDED. IN ADDITION...WW ISSUANCE MAY
   BECOME NECESSARY TO THE NORTH OF WW 123 ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL KS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARPLY DEFINED DRYLINE
   EXTENDING NNEWD FROM NW TX ACROSS WRN OK INTO SRN KS. NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
   DRYLINE. THESE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH
   OF WRN OK WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE.
   IN ADDITION...THE FREDERICK OK WSR-88D VWP SHOWS A GRADUALLY VEERING
   WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN
   THE LOWEST 2 KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING CELLS. THE
   LATEST WRF-HRRR CONFIRMS THIS BY MOVING A COUPLE OF LIFT SPLIT
   SUPERCELLS NNEWD INTO SCNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONG
   INSTABILITY IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
   8.5 C/KM WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE
   INTENSE UPDRAFTS. ALSO...LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25 TO 35
   DEGREES SHOULD HELP ACCELERATE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS MAKING WIND DAMAGE A
   POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   34729882 35459765 36829704 38189638 38649675 38599785
               37589870 35879947 35169960 34729882 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2014
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