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Mesoscale Discussion 512
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM...WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 051958Z - 052130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE NM AND
   WEST TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
   NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
   DRY-SLOT OVER WEST TX FROM NEAR MIDLAND NWD TO AMARILLO. AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY...SFC TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S F WHERE A NARROW AXIS
   OF INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE FROM 1000 TO
   1200 J/KG JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LUBBOCK ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS. IN
   ADDITION...A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS SE
   NM AND WEST TX WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40
   TO 45 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
   CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DOWNDRAFTS MATURE. AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS CELLS INTERACT WITH THE WRN EDGE
   OF A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
   ANTICIPATED ACROSS WEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
   CONCERNING THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP. FOR THAT
   REASON...THE NEED FOR A WATCH REMAINS CONDITIONAL ATTM.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 05/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34490242 34570167 34340127 34070110 33670110 33020120
               32640137 32310175 32280265 32380355 32620372 32970373
               33460348 33960313 34210292 34490242 

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Page last modified: May 05, 2015
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