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Mesoscale Discussion 512
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO / NWRN KS / SWRN NEB / SERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122...

   VALID 072205Z - 072330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO 1.75-2.00 INCHES IN DIAMETER
   AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS.
   THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT
   WATCH AND A LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IN AREA MAY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 2140Z...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED A MATURE
   SUPERCELL JUST SW OF AKO MOVING 230/24 KT WITH OTHER STRONG-SEVERE
   STORMS EXHIBITING EPISODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FROM WELD COUNTY CO
   TO LARAMIE COUNTY WY. FINALLY...MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   INCLUDING A SPLIT HAS OCCURRED OVER KIT CARSON INTO YUMA COUNTIES CO
   WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HOUR ACROSS
   RAWLINS AND DECATUR COUNTIES IN KS. SYNTHESIS OF THESE RADAR
   OBSERVATIONS WITH SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THESE STORMS ARE SITUATED
   ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A HSI-HLC-PUB
   LINE WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG.  

   EXPECT ONGOING STORMS TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING NEWD
   THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A WIND
   PROFILE EXHIBITING PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL CLOCKWISE CURVATURE WITH
   40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...T-TD
   SPREADS OF 15-20 DEGREES F COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

   ..MEAD/THOMPSON.. 05/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39670105 39660317 39630445 40330559 41300587 41610453
               41550327 41890185 41740086 41230054 39670105 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2014
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