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Mesoscale Discussion 512
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...130...

   VALID 301238Z - 301345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   129...130...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY RISKS SHOULD REMAIN AS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
   PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO INTO LATE MORNING AS A PAIR OF MCS/S LIKELY
   MERGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...FORWARD MOTION OF A LEAD MCS THAT HAS CROSSED THE
   SABINE RIVER INTO SOUTHWEST LA WAS ONLY ABOUT 20 KT...WHILE AN
   UPSTREAM MCS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN HOUSTON METRO WAS MOVING EAST
   AROUND 40 KT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MERGING OF THESE MCS/S IN THE
   NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE. 12Z LCH SAMPLED ONLY
   SLIGHTLY WEAKENED MLCIN...AROUND 100 J/KG...RELATIVE TO 00Z. AS
   SUCH...THIS LEAD CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEST FORWARD
   SPEED UNTIL UPSTREAM COLD POOL AMALGAMATION OCCURS. BEYOND THE FLASH
   FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN WPC MPD 154...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
   AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30399519 30519449 30539384 30759349 30859262 30709225
               30189207 29729230 29599256 29629374 29359475 29209536
               29269615 29589604 30399519 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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