MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN...N-CENTRAL AND W-CENTRAL TX...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 180444Z - 180615Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THROUGH 08Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES E/SEWD. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SWRN OK WWD ACROSS THE
   TX S PLAINS AND HAS BEGUN TO MOVE E/SEWD IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
   RISES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE INTERSECTS THE FRONT
   APPROXIMATELY 60 NE BGS AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO FAR SWRN TX. IN
   ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES... WARM AND MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE WITH DEW
   POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
   2000 AND 3000 J/KG. STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
   EFFECTIVE SHEARS AVERAGING 50KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS
   LIKELY DEVELOPING RATHER QUICKLY INTO A LINE GIVEN FRONTAL FORCING. 
   
   
   FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA BASED ON
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD.
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 04/18/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   33549913 33729850 33639808 33429797 32959805 32359839
               31879870 31419911 30989977 30470120 30960184 31510142
               32580058 33040021 33299967 33549913