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Mesoscale Discussion 513
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN IA / SWRN INTO S-CNTRL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 072235Z - 080000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORM INITIATION IS APPEARING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
   AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATE A CONTINUED
   DEEPENING OF SURFACE-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE IA-MN
   BORDER NORTH OF SPW.  22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES THIS ACTIVITY E OF A
   SURFACE LOW /LOCATED E OF FSD/ AND ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
   FROM THE LOW EWD ALONG THE IA-MN BORDER BEFORE CURVING SEWD INTO
   E-CNTRL IA. THE AIR MASS TO THE S OF THE WARM FRONT HAS WARMED TO
   AROUND 90 F WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE APPROACHING
   2500-3000 J/KG.

   DESPITE THE GROWING CUMULUS FIELD...DAYLIGHT STORM DEVELOPMENT
   REMAINS UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE WHICH
   WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A CAP. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME
   SUSTAINED...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
   PROFILE WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

   TSTM DEVELOPMENT /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ WILL BECOME MORE
   PROBABLE AFTER ABOUT 08/03Z ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MN INTO
   W-CNTRL/NWRN WI AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WAA ARE ENHANCED AT THE
   TERMINUS OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ. HERE TOO...HAIL WOULD
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   ..MEAD/THOMPSON.. 05/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43309572 43749574 44269505 44279414 44019332 43899286
               43569290 43229310 43009344 42859424 43079533 43309572 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2014
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