MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TO NERN MO...FAR SERN KS...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL
   IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...
   
   VALID 180446Z - 180615Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS/HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   CONTINUES ACROSS WW 119.
   
   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN DEVELOPING OVER SWRN MO
   WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR OWING TO MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT S OF
   A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT APPROXIMATELY BISECTS MO FROM WSW
   TO ENE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENEWD/NEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- INCLUDING EMBEDDED
   BOWING LINE SEGMENTS -- DEVELOPING NEWD FROM CNTRL/NERN OKLAHOMA.
   WHILE NOCTURNAL COOLING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GROWING CINH FOR A
   SURFACE-BASED PARCEL...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER SGF VWP 
   DATA -- SUPPORTING AROUND 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH -- MAY YIELD DMGG
   WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED QLCS
   SEGMENTS/LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. SVR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL LIE INVOF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONT. N OF THIS FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
   SFC...WITH SVR HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. HOWEVER...SVR WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO COULD OCCUR WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL COOL
   DOME IS RELATIVELY MORE SHALLOW -- ESPECIALLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
   THE SFC FRONT -- GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR AND
   ENSUING STORM-SCALE HYDRODYNAMIC PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS.
   
   ..COHEN.. 04/18/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   36519342 36519557 39729213 39728988 36519342