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Mesoscale Discussion 513
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...ERN PORTIONS OF
   THE S PLAINS...AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG
   COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 060041Z - 060245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN A COMPLEX LOW-LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF W AND NW TX.  RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A
   TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY COMPLEX
   PATTERN...INCLUDING A SEGMENTED/RETREATING DRYLINE AND NUMEROUS --
   SOMETIMES COLLIDING -- CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  AREA WSR-88DS LIKEWISE
   REVEAL A COMPLEX EVOLUTION...WITH ISOLATED/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS AS
   WELL AS AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF SEVERAL MERGING SUPERCELLS E AND NE
   OF LUBBOCK ATTM.

   THE BACKGROUND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS
   SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT -- WITH A ZONE OF 500 TO
   1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE INDICATED TO THE W OF A LARGE N-S BAND OF
   WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS OK/CENTRAL TX...AND E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   DRYLINE.  KINEMATICALLY...GENERALLY SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW IS
   OBSERVED WHICH VEERS RAPIDLY TO WSWLY AT MID-LEVELS -- THUS
   RESULTING IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS.  WHILE PRIMARY
   THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LARGE HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE /A RECENT REPORT OF A TORNADO HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM WRN
   CROSBY CO/.  IN ADDITION...AS THE WRN CROSBY COUNTY SUPERCELL AND
   SEVERAL OTHER STORMS N AND W OF THIS CELL -- INCLUDING AN EARLIER
   LEFT SPLIT FROM THE TORNADIC CELL -- MERGE/EVOLVE WITH TIME...SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT/MCS GENERATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
   WITH TIME.  THIS COULD RESULT IN A LOCALLY GREATER RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.

   WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   AREA...THOUGH NEED FOR WW REMAINS UNCLEAR ATTM.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 05/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33920149 34810156 34710019 33879952 32280018 31550171
               31810196 32240173 32900153 33920149 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2015
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