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Mesoscale Discussion 514
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131...

   VALID 301835Z - 301930Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
   ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
   AROUND 1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE COMBINATION OF CAPE AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CORES.

   DESPITE THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...RECENT VAD WIND PROFILES
   FROM KLIX INDICATE ENOUGH VEERING WITH HEIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
   WIND FIELD TO SUPPORT BRIEF/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN
   THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM LINE. THESE FEATURES MAY ACT TO ENHANCE THE
   LOCAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT...AND/OR RESULT IN A BRIEF
   TORNADO.

   ..MARSH.. 04/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   28598941 28719098 28759115 29309287 29919245 30979180
               31219158 31329147 31359130 31359055 30038886 30008883
               29848882 29158901 28638919 28608931 28598941 28598941 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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