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Mesoscale Discussion 514
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX...CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123...

   VALID 072326Z - 080030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS
   A TORNADO WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN OK AND NW
   TX. THE THREAT MAY EXPAND EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX. WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO THE EAST OF WW 123.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELLS
   LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM JUST TO THE EAST OF
   VERNON TX EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR WEATHERFORD OK. ONE RIGHT-MOVING
   SUPERCELL EXHIBITING STRONG ROTATION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
   WICHITA FALLS. THE LATEST WRF-HRRR SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY WILL
   GRADUALLY MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK EXTENDING SWD TO THE RED RIVER
   NORTH OF FORT WORTH TX. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN THE
   MID 60S F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN
   ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW GRADUALLY VEERING WIND
   PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT.
   THIS COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE ROTATING
   CELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT CELL SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA FALLS MAY PRODUCE
   A TORNADO OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT CAPPING TO THE EAST OF THE CELL MAY
   MAKE THE THREAT SHORT-LIVED. FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN SCNTRL
   OK...CELL MERGERS SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE
   MORE ORGANIZED CELL CLUSTERS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35089670 34109688 33479729 33259790 33379852 33959857
               35569832 36779789 36929665 35089670 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2014
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