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Mesoscale Discussion 514
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0956 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX PANHANDLE...TX BIG COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 132...

   VALID 060256Z - 060430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 132 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SOME ISOLATED HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS
   OF THE WATCH WHILE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
   TORNADO ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS N OF SJT.

   DISCUSSION...TWO DISTINCT THREAT AREAS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN TORNADO
   WATCH 132...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A TSTM CLUSTER WITH OCCASIONAL
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE MOVING NEWD INTO FAR
   NW TX AND FAR SW OK AND THE OTHER N OF SJT WITH A SUPERCELL MOVING
   ESEWD FROM MITCHELL AND STERLING COUNTIES INTO COKE COUNTY. ACTIVITY
   IN THE NRN AREA APPEARS TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH RADAR IMAGERY
   SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE HAS OCCURRED. BEST AREA FOR
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG THE SRN END OF THE LINE BUT THE
   OUTFLOW IS WELL AHEAD OF THE ONGOING TSTMS IN DICKENS AND KING
   COUNTIES AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED.
   PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY NOW APPEARS TO BE HAIL WITH A
   SECONDARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   WILL BECOME INCREASING HOSTILE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.

   CYCLIC SUPERCELL IN COKE COUNTY APPEARS TO BE WANING AS WELL WITH
   RECENT RADAR SCANS SAMPLING DIMINISHING REFLECTIVITY ALOFT.
   MESOCYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED
   TORNADO THREAT FOR THE NEXT HALF-HOUR OR SO BUT DIURNALLY INCREASING
   CINH AND THE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO
   CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND.

   ..MOSIER.. 05/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33700166 34290134 34460078 34539988 34389954 34119936
               32499926 31549952 31370062 31650150 32800165 33700166 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2015
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