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Mesoscale Discussion 515
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NE NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 072354Z - 080100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT LOCATIONS EAST OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122 BY 01Z. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
   OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PERHAPS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA PRIOR TO THIS
   TIME.

   DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE CLUSTERING OF TSTMS HAS OCCURRED OVER SWRN
   NEB OVER THE PAST HOUR OWING TO AGGREGATING STORM-SCALE COLD POOLS
   AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND TO
   CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY
   SPREADING EWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL NEB AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT IS FURTHER AUGMENTED BY INCREASED WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LLJ.  

   GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE OF
   1500-2000 J/KG...AND AMPLE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT
   WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
   WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY COOLS AND
   DECOUPLES.

   ..MEAD/THOMPSON.. 05/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40149906 40209984 40870019 41550009 41919968 42009918
               42319835 42279803 41759775 41229774 40629821 40149906 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2014
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