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Mesoscale Discussion 515
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCNTRL ARKANSAS THROUGH SCNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 302002Z - 302200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN/NCNTRL ARKANSAS
   THROUGH SCNTRL MO BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
   AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF CUMULUS
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM NWRN ARKANSAS
   THROUGH CNTRL MO. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A ZONE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
   DRYING WITH IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT
   STILL BE SLIGHTLY CAPPED TO SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...AN
   AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK IN MOST OF
   THIS REGION...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH BE MULTICELL IN
   CHARACTER AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL AND
   ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES TOWARD
   MID-EVENING.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35179374 35999345 36919299 37919229 38589169 38429103
               37679075 36409187 35149272 34799365 35179374 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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