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Mesoscale Discussion 515
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
   SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 061803Z - 062000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY BETWEEN 18 AND
   19Z. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS
   INITIALLY...BUT TURNING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST A TORNADO
   THREAT FOR ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION
   AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WITH AN EASTERN EDGE STRETCHING FROM EAST
   OF LBB TO NEAR SHAMROCK.  ALTHOUGH THE MCD AREA IS UNDER NEUTRAL TO
   SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
   WAVE...LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA.
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8 C/KM. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40
   KT...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE THE FAVORED MODE FOR PERSISTENT
   UPDRAFTS...BUT LONGEVITY OF THE SUPERCELLS COULD BE NEGATIVELY
   IMPACTED BY STORM INTERACTIONS AS NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP UNDER LITTLE INHIBITION AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY LIFT FROM A
   WEAK POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BROAD
   CYCLONIC FLOW IN UPPER-LEVELS.  REGARDLESS OF STORM MODE...SEVERE
   HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   WIND SPEEDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODEST...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW
   CURVATURE...WITH EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 FOR
   STORMS THAT DEVIATE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR.

   ..CONIGLIO/HART.. 05/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33749772 33359780 32599836 32419910 32660036 33390127
               34170062 34380046 34920010 35239945 35019826 34629758
               33749772 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2015
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