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Mesoscale Discussion 516
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL KS...S CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 061809Z - 062045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN INTO CNTRL KS WITH
   TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU INCREASING IN DEPTH ACROSS
   MUCH OF CNTRL KS INTO SWRN NEB DUE TO HEATING AND A RAPID NWD
   ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S
   F. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN
   KS...WITH ENHANCED VORTICITY ON THE N SIDE OF THE MIDLEVEL JET. 

   NEARBY VWPS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE LACK OF A CAPPING INVERSION
   COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH-RH BOUNDARY LAYER AND AMPLE
   LOW-LEVEL SRH SUGGEST TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY
   BUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SUGGESTING HP SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A
   LINEAR MODE AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL...MAINLY OVER NRN KS
   INTO SRN NEB.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 05/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   36979769 36719852 36719899 36959924 37249943 37909957
               38409975 38800023 39180046 39690042 40110022 40499952
               40909813 40889757 40239716 39259716 38089712 37469722
               36979769 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2015
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