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Mesoscale Discussion 516
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH
   ALABAMA...WEST FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 131...

   VALID 302100Z - 302300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL
   CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...AFTER WHICH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH EAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH NUMBER 131.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   LOUISIANA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONALLY...VAD WIND PROFILES AT LIX AND MOB
   EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT
   BRIEF/TRANSIENT/SHALLOW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE COMBINATION OF
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST AND A BRIEF TORNADO
   OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS A RESULT...WFO SLIDELL HAS
   LOCALLY EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 131 IN BOTH SPACE
   AND TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

   LATER THIS EVENING...AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EAST...SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING
   IN A GENERAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
   REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
   INTENSITY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
   NEED OF A SMALL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA
   AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

   ..MARSH/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29449131 31339055 31308848 31158727 30508666 29958673
               28738811 28569027 28699137 29449131 

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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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