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Mesoscale Discussion 517
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 061846Z - 062045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND WILL BE EXPANDING IN
   COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A WEATHER WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
   WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID-60S.  SHOWERS AND A
   FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
   PERSISTENT STRATUS FIELD OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BOTH ALONG THE DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM
   FORT STOCKTON TO MIDLAND AND POINTS NORTHEAST...AND WITHIN A
   THICKENING FIELD OF CUMULUS WHERE MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES HAVE
   INCREASED TO 1500-2000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT WILL
   SUPPORT MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LIKELY
   WITH PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM
   POTENTIAL IS A SIGNAL FOR MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
   WEST...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EQUATOR-WARD SIDE OF THE
   ENHANCED 400-250 MB FLOW. THE RESULTANT LOWERING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES COULD INITIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE DRY
   MID-LEVEL AIR SPREADING IN. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   LOW INITIALLY BECAUSE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN WEAK UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE THE INITIAL THOUGHT IS TO
   ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IF ONE IS ISSUED...BUT THE WIND
   FIELDS AND RADAR TRENDS OF THE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPTICK IN TORNADO POTENTIAL.

   ..CONIGLIO/HART.. 05/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31420219 32020182 32510137 32760042 32619904 32079867
               31129878 30369930 29999975 29770089 29750161 29840204
               30210249 30920232 31420219 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2015
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