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Mesoscale Discussion 519
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0519
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA...FAR SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST MS

   CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

   VALID 010822Z - 011015Z

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT OUTLOOK PERIOD ENDING AT
   12Z. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN A WEAK WARM CONVEYOR...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
   INCREASED FROM NEAR GALVESTON BAY INTO SOUTHWEST LA. 0-1 KM SHEAR IS
   WEAK /ONLY AROUND 10 KT/ AND FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM IS MODEST
   PER RECENT LAKE CHARLES VWP DATA. HOWEVER...VEERING OF THE WIND
   PROFILE WITH HEIGHT FROM THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AMID STRONG
   UPPER-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL PRODUCTION GIVEN A
   MODERATELY BUOYANT AIR MASS PER MODIFIED 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB AND
   RAP SOUNDINGS. HRRR/WRF-NSSL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
   EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME. GREATEST SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE AN INCREASING CLUSTER
   MODE/DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE LIKELY LIMITS HAIL MAGNITUDE LATER
   THIS MORNING.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29749450 30909388 31279287 31479168 31369073 30899013
               30298995 29879013 29569028 29249080 29559344 29519414
               29749450 

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