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Mesoscale Discussion 520
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TORNADO WATCH 0133

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133...

   VALID 062027Z - 062230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 133 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FOR WATCH 0133.

   DISCUSSION...A WEAKLY-TORNADIC SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO
   ORGANIZE OVER SOUTHEAST CADDO COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
   DEVELOPING ALONG A CONFLUENCE LINE ACROSS WESTERN OK.  VISIBLE
   SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA...BUT STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
   MAF AND ABI WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE WATCH SOON.
   KTLX VWPS AND 19Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
   WATCH REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ENHANCED 900-700 MB FLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG EXITING WAVE TO THE NORTH WHICH HAS
   ENLARGED THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH AND PRODUCED OVER 200 M2/S2 OF 0-3
   KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY OVER THE WATCH AREA.  RELATIVELY WEAK
   WINDS IN THE 700-400 MB LAYER MAY BE PREVENTING A STRONGER
   ORGANIZATION TO THE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY.  HOWEVER...THE KTLX VWP
   INDICATES THE LOW-PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUPERCELL OVER
   WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY BE LOCALLY-ENHANCING THE SREH THROUGH
   BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...IN ADDITION TO A LARGER-SCALE
   BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
   FOR CONTINUED STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ROTATION.  ADDITIONALLY...THE
   EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGHER MLCAPE OVER 1500-3000 J/KG NOW EXTENDS TO
   EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING.  THEREFORE THE
   TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL
   THIS STORM AS IT APPROACHED THE OKC METRO AREA.

   ..CONIGLIO/HART.. 05/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34800013 35630007 36329998 37120003 37019779 37029717
               36059708 34489721 33659735 32919763 32899850 33069970
               33190008 34800013 

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Page last modified: May 06, 2015
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