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Mesoscale Discussion 520
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN OH THROUGH NRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011739Z - 011945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
   HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
   FROM NRN OH SWWD THROUGH SRN IND TO A SFC LOW IN SRN IL. A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN IL...AND ERN ARKANSAS.
   WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
   1500 J/KG. BASED ON THE 17Z RAOB FROM WILMINGTON OH...VERY LITTLE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OH...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
   INITIATE FARTHER SW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND STORMS SPLITS WITH LARGE HAIL
   THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   38978757 39698619 40318413 40558239 39878176 39048267
               38088482 37678682 38088783 38978757 

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