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Mesoscale Discussion 521
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW KY...WRN TN...NRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011811Z - 011915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
   A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WRN OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
   MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN INCREASINGLY
   AGITATED CU ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO FAR SW KY...WRN
   TN...AND NW MS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
   WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST LITTLE...IF ANY...CINH REMAINS
   AMIDST MLCAPE NEAR 15OO J PER KG. LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
   REGION IS WEAK BUT 12Z BNA SOUNDING SAMPLED 500-MB FLOW AROUND 50 KT
   WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY
   ESTIMATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-55 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 05/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34948818 34398906 34289030 34609044 35368957 36338879
               36868818 37258761 37228666 36798655 36338686 34948818 

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