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Mesoscale Discussion 522
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...SE NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 134...

   VALID 062236Z - 070000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 134 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 134 THROUGH EARLY
   THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH
   THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
   THIS EVENING. WW EXTENSIONS COULD BECOME NECESSARY IMMEDIATELY TO
   THE EAST OF WW 134 AS CELLS APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL-CENTERED LOW FROM
   SE CO INTO SW NEB WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOCATED ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED FROM
   SCNTRL KS NWD INTO SE NEB WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO
   2000 J/KG RANGE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER WRN NEB AND WRN KS WITH A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
   FLOW EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO THE MID MO
   VALLEY. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH
   COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE HASTINGS WSR-88D VWP SHOWS
   SELY FLOW AT THE SFC...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER AND SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE
   ACROSS NRN KS AND SE NEB EARLY THIS EVENING. A STRONG TORNADO COULD
   OCCUR WITH THE MOST DOMINANT SUPERCELL.

   FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE WICHITA WSR-88D VWP ALSO SHOWS STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY BETWEEN 450 AND
   500 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   AND TORNADOES. A STRONG TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN SCNTRL KS
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36869714 36789853 36919915 37689920 39579883 40839831
               41519754 41409676 41109623 40079618 38529677 37469691
               36869714 

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