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Mesoscale Discussion 522
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK SSWWD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY REGION  OF TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...

   VALID 080719Z - 080815Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THOUGH EARLIER STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER WW 0129...NEW
   STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE W OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN
   AND ARE APPROACHING THE WW FROM THE W.  STILL...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
   SEVERE RISK ANTICIPATED...WW RE-ISSUANCE APPEARS UNNECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/PERMIAN
   BASIN DRYLINE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ARE MOVING NEWD AT
   ROUGHLY 40 KT.  CONVECTION IS APPROACHING WRN PORTIONS OF WW
   0129...AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA INCLUDED IN THE WATCH
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
   FEATURING 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. 
   WHILE SHEAR /0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT PER KDYX VWP/ IS SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED -- ATOP BOTH OUTFLOW GENERATED BY THE ONGOING STORMS...AS
   WELL AS A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  THUS
   -- THOUGH RISK FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A GUST APPROACHING SEVERE
   LEVELS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS...NEW WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ATTM.

   ..GOSS.. 05/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   35519795 34989785 32639868 31719920 30720092 30800205
               32180116 32880037 34399989 35389887 35519795 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2014
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