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Mesoscale Discussion 522
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SW/W WV...FAR SW VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 011959Z - 012100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL SOME SVR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SVR
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO HEAT UP
   UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INITIAL CINH NOW COMPLETELY ERODED.
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT LOWER HERE THAN AREAS FARTHER
   W...CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY /LATEST MESOANALYSIS
   ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. EVEN WITH LESS
   INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VADS AND ESTIMATED BY
   MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED/POSSIBLY SCATTERED SEVERE THREAT
   MAY MATERIALIZE AS TSTM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
   PERSISTENT HEATING AND SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED SOON TO ADDRESS THIS SVR THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/DIAL.. 05/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...

   LAT...LON   37288115 36978373 37678373 38628274 39028227 39168199
               39388102 39148052 38518036 37288115 

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