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Mesoscale Discussion 523
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0523
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0901 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

   Areas affected...East-central/southeast KS...West-central MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 200201Z - 200330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A downstream watch may be needed to address the potential
   severe threat across east-central and southeast KS.

   DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms is moving southeastward
   across central KS at about 20-25 kt. This storm motion will put this
   line of storms near the edge of watch 149 around 03Z. Some slowing
   of the cold front and, as a result, the storms along it, is
   anticipated as it becomes more displaced from its parent upper
   system (currently moving across the northern Plains). Even so,
   increasing low-level flow will increase convergence into the frontal
   zone and the general expectation is for thunderstorms to persist for
   the next several hours into east-central and southeast KS. Effective
   bulk shear will remain supportive of organized updrafts but given
   the linear storm mode and continually stabilizing low-levels, the
   areal coverage of any severe threat is uncertain. Southwestward
   backbuilding is expected across western portions of the front moving
   into south-central KS. Some hail and wind threat is possible across
   this area, particularly with any initial development, but, as with
   area farther east, decreasing instability, a more linear storm mode,
   and undercut nature to the convection suggest a fairly limited
   overall severe threat. Convective trends across this entire region
   will be monitored closely for potential downstream watch issuance.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 04/20/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37509904 37989772 39149602 39399556 39519499 39549444
               39399423 39119418 38919427 38579465 38299497 38039534
               37739587 37109720 37079870 37509904 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2017
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