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Mesoscale Discussion 523
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN IA INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 080846Z - 081045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE
   FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE
   STORMS MOVING OUT OF SWRN SD INTO FAR NWRN IA/FAR SWRN MN
   ATTM...WITH OTHER STRONG STORMS OCCURRING WITHIN A BROADER AREA FROM
   NERN NEB NEWD INTO MN/NRN WI.

   THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY...WHERE WARM ADVECTION IS BEING MAXIMIZED NEAR THE NOSE
   OF A 50-PLUS KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM TX NWD INTO ERN
   NEB.

   WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA --
   VEERING SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNRISE...CONTINUED ASCENT WITHIN THE
   FAVORABLE BACKGROUND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE
   AROUND 1500 J/KG/ SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE -- A FEW OF
   WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT 2-4
   HOURS.  GIVEN THE ELEVATED AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS THUS
   LIMITING SEVERE RISK OVERALL...WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 05/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

   LAT...LON   44429327 43409415 42799581 41949808 41939877 43109848
               44949543 44949376 44429327 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2014
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