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Mesoscale Discussion 523
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012206Z - 020000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
   SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY THIS
   EVENING. AS IT CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...INCREASING MID-LEVEL
   FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD ENCOURAGE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. INDEED...SIGNS OF THIS ARE
   ALREADY APPEARING IN A SLOWLY ORGANIZING LINE SEGMENT NORTH OF ST.
   LOUIS. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   STEEP...ENOUGH SFC HEATING HAS OCCURRED SUCH THAT AROUND 500-1000
   J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND AROUND 50 KTS
   OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS AND SOME SMALL
   BOWING SEGMENTS...IF CONVECTION SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOPS. THE PRIMARY
   THREAT WITH THESE CELLS WOULD BE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A
   WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 05/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38989022 39319034 40118925 40578845 40688682 40638538
               40468497 39968483 39778487 39238494 39028509 38568670
               38268810 38158968 38249001 38989022 

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