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Mesoscale Discussion 524
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND W-CNTRL NC / N-CNTRL SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012214Z - 012315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL OR
   MORE INTENSE MULTICELL EARLY THIS EVENING.  EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE
   WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLD HAIL-PRODUCING STORMS OVER THE SC PIEDMONT NWD
   INTO WRN PORTIONS OF NC HAVE EXHIBITED MRMS HAIL-SIZE SIGNATURES IN
   THE 0.75-1.75 INCH RANGE DURING THE PAST HOUR.  SURFACE CONDITIONS
   WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS CHARACTERIZE
   THE AREA AND HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  30-35 KT
   6-KM FLOW HAS YIELD DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX MODE OF
   SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.  WHILE STORM COVERAGE IS
   GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING...THE RISK
   FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 05/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   34318133 35438206 36418173 36578122 36388090 34358070
               34318133 

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