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Mesoscale Discussion 524
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062331Z - 070100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH MULTICELLS THAT CAN PERSIST. DUE TO THE
   MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 999 MB LOW OVER FAR SE
   CO WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW. AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH COLD
   AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE
   ESTIMATED BETWEEN -13 AND -14C ACROSS ERN CO. THIS COMBINED WITH 35
   TO 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...EVIDENT ON THE GOODLAND KS AND PUEBLO
   CO WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
   MULTICELLS. AS THE CELLS MOVE EWD INTO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY OVER
   WRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38020209 37850307 37830363 38360393 38910394 39170346
               39480242 39610099 38740078 38020209 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2015
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