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Mesoscale Discussion 525
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081811Z - 082015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL/N
   TX DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME SVR WIND/HAIL IS POSSIBLE BUT
   UNCERTAINTY ON SVR COVERAGE LIMITS WATCH PROBABILITIES AT THE
   MOMENT. STORM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE PRIMARY DRYLINE FROM SW OK
   SWWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY DRYLINE LIKELY
   EXTENDS FROM COOKE COUNTY IN N TX SSWWD TOWARDS KERR COUNTY IN
   S-CNTRL TX. CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL TX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS SECONDARY DRYLINE. BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE
   IMPETUS FOR INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE GENERALLY POOR...OWING TO WARM
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION.
   HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING AMIDST MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL HELP
   PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 35-45 KT...WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS. SHEAR DECREASES ACROSS E TX...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD.

   OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY LIMITED BY INSTABILITY
   BUT ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SVR WIND/HAIL.
   UNCERTAINTY ON SVR COVERAGE IS HIGH...LEADING TO LOWER WATCH
   PROBABILITIES BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 05/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29529843 29869905 30649958 31249962 32009912 32719834
               33069760 33059715 32989670 32889652 32459644 32059648
               31419669 29849729 29529843 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2014
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