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Mesoscale Discussion 526
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...FAR SW IA...ERN KS AND NW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 070040Z - 070145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO NE
   KS...SE NEB...FAR SW IA AND NW MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY
   BE NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW OVER FAR SW
   KS WITH STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER KS AND ERN NEB. THE
   AXIS OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF
   OF KS EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN NEB WHERE NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SBCAPE
   IS AROUND 1700 J/KG WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY LOCATED FURTHER TO THE
   NORTH ACROSS SE NEB. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION
   WILL DEVELOP GRADUALLY EWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
   STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING. THE TOPEKA WSR-88D VWP SHOWS AMPLE
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CREATING A LOOPED HODOGRAPH. THE STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ENABLE THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS TO HAVE A
   TORNADO THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS. AS
   CELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MCS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE
   PREDOMINANT THREAT MAY BECOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS EVENING.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   37379495 37169782 39159770 40189741 41189690 41439640
               41369583 40959491 39249469 37379495 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2015
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