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Mesoscale Discussion 526
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE NEB/SWRN IA...NWRN MO...AND ERN KS INTO
   N CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082022Z - 082215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY EVENING MAY
   BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.  IT IS
   NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IMPACTED THIS MORNING BY
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO MODIFY...BUT THE AIR MASS DOES
   APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF DESTABILIZING WITH INCREASING
   INSOLATION BENEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...IT
   APPEARS MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR
   ALONG AN AXIS EAST OF WICHITA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.  ALTHOUGH
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS IN
   THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT INTO EARLY EVENING. 
   THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.

   FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A NARROW
   BROKEN SQUALL LINE...ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
   FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRYLINE EAST/SOUTHEAST
   OF WICHITA...BEFORE IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT.  ACTIVITY PROBABLY
   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY
   00-02Z...BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING.

   ..KERR/HART.. 05/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37399724 38539639 39989576 40979543 40009446 37199585
               36429756 37399724 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2014
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