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Mesoscale Discussion 526
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / SRN WV / WRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134...

   VALID 012330Z - 020030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND
   LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH 134 AND LIKELY EXTEND INTO WRN PARTS OF VA IN THE NEXT 1-3
   HOURS.  A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST OF THE EXISTING
   WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN KY AND SRN
   WV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY
   THIS EVENING.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT --LOCATED FARTHER W OVER THE OH VALLEY-- STRONG MID TO
   HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EWD PROGRESSION AND STORM
   ORGANIZATION/VENTING NEEDED FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL ACT TO
   GRADUALLY PROMOTE BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION BUT AROUND 1000 J PER
   KG MUCAPE AND AROUND 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WEAK
   SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTER INTO THE MID
   EVENING HOURS.

   ..SMITH.. 05/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   37728284 38298189 37907924 37337924 36647998 36678107
               37248314 37728284 

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