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Mesoscale Discussion 527
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0821 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...FAR
   SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136...

   VALID 020121Z - 020315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
   FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THEREAFTER...CELLS SHOULD
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ROBUST SUPERCELLS ARE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
   CENTRAL INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. RECENT
   KIND VWP DATA DEPICT A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CYCLONIC
   ROTATION...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO VIGOROUS WESTERLY
   FLOW AT/ABOVE 6 KM AGL. FURTHERMORE...SEVERAL ZDR ARC SIGNATURES
   HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...DEPICTING RAIN DROP SIZE SORTING WITHIN A
   VEERING STORM-RELATIVE WIND PROFILE. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONES.

   FARTHER EAST...A NORTHWARD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
   INITIATING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO. MOST
   LIKELY...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALTER THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
   ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE INDIANA CELLS MOVING EAST WILL WEAKEN OVER
   TIME. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY LOW SFC DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
   TO FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. AS SUCH...DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

   ..PICCA.. 05/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   38838812 40358693 40518525 40348370 40008299 38858311
               38818386 38818484 38418645 38258773 38418819 38638822
               38838812 

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Page last modified: May 02, 2016
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