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Mesoscale Discussion 527
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082254Z - 090100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
   02Z. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF
   MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG WITH
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. TSTMS
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEWD-MOVING MID LEVEL
   IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER ERN MO. WITH 35-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   PROMOTING STORM ORGANIZATION...THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL POSE AN
   ISOLATED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL...WITH THE
   SVR THREAT DIMINISHING WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET
   OF DIURNAL COOLING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR
   THREAT...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 05/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   39788957 39549008 39919075 40689066 41209044 41749008
               42148980 42318952 42408921 42378874 41658863 40578920
               39788957 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2014
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