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Mesoscale Discussion 528
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0940 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...SE NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 136...

   VALID 070240Z - 070415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 136 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING
   AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. A TORNADO
   MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW OVER WRN KS
   WITH STRONG SLY FLOW OVER CNTRL AND NRN KS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL KS EXTENDING NWD INTO SE NEB. A LINE
   OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED AT THE NRN END OF THE
   MOIST TONGUE ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN
   HALF OF KANSAS WHERE MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS
   COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP AN
   MCS TO ORGANIZE. THE HASTINGS WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40
   KT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 1 KM. THIS WILL CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES LATE THIS
   EVENING. DUE TO A NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION FROM SCNTRL TO SE KS...THE SEVERE THREAT COULD
   DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF WW 136 WHERE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL COULD EXIST.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37229745 37449848 38439890 40129915 41089842 41249599
               40259549 38489605 37379683 37229745 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2015
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