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Mesoscale Discussion 528
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020538Z - 020745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SUPERCELL ALONG THE NUEVO LEON AND TAMAULIPAS BORDER
   SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON ITS CURRENT
   SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING HAIL ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
   DIAMETER/...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
   LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT MAY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL DUE WEST OF ZAPATA COUNTY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
   SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KT. EXTRAPOLATION RESULTS IN THE HAIL CORE
   REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN 0630-0700Z. WITH MODEST EASTERLY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER CORPUS CHRISTI/BROWNSVILLE VWP
   DATA...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR MAINTENANCE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
   IS IN THE DEGREE OF MLCIN AND ITS SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON THE LONGEVITY
   OF THIS SUPERCELL. BUT GIVEN ITS WELL-DEVELOPED NATURE AT BASE RADAR
   SCANS /WHICH ARE STILL AROUND 20000 FT AGL AT THIS TIME/...IT SEEMS
   PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS SUPERCELL WILL AFFECT AT LEAST A COUPLE COUNTIES
   IN DEEP SOUTH TX.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27069944 27019898 26819854 26469828 26179840 26279890
               26519927 26819947 27069944 

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Page last modified: May 02, 2016
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