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Mesoscale Discussion 529
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL OK/WRN N TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 137...

   VALID 070353Z - 070600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 137 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES -- PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH ACROSS WRN N TX.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG/ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE WW AREA...WITHIN AN
   MOIST/UNSTABLE/FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
   STORMS ATTM ARE ONGOING ACROSS WRN N TX...WHERE SEVERAL LARGE
   SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING.  THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM TORNADO RISK
   WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

   MEANWHILE FARTHER N...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
   PARTS OF WRN...CENTRAL...AND NRN OK...WHERE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE.  

   EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE RISK AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS MODELS
   SHOW WEAKENING IN THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WITH TIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH
   CONTINUES SHIFTING NNEWD AWAY FROM THE SRN PLAINS.  HOWEVER...SEVERE
   RISK COULD SLOWLY TRANSITION TOWARD THAT OF PRIMARILY HEAVY
   RAINS/FLOODING ACROSS WRN N TX...AS A PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING STORMS TO
   PERSIST.

   ..GOSS.. 05/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32910011 33650016 34299987 36969846 37119652 36139634
               33949696 32989823 32910011 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2015
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