MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0857 PM CDT THU APR 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...WRN KY...SWRN INDIANA...SERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 190157Z - 190300Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND GUST MAY EXIST THIS
   EVENING. A WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
   
   DISCUSSION...SMALL...LOW-TOPPED...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS
   OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD HAVE RECENTLY
   BECOME APPARENT IN REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...BNA 00Z
   RAOB DATA -- MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF
   THE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS -- SUGGESTS LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MLCAPE
   PRESENT...DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS AFFIRMED BY
   THE PRESENCE OF NEARLY NO LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HAIL...OF
   ANY SIZE...WILL BE UNLIKELY...AS CONVECTION WILL BE SHALLOW. WHILE A
   STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF LINE-EMBEDDED WEAK/BROAD
   MESOVORTICES -- PERHAPS ENHANCED BY GRAVITY WAVES -- THIS POTENTIAL
   WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
   TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...AT BEST.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   36568882 37438852 38328784 38278705 37418693 35798743
               35568809 35668883 36568882