MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0547 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS / WRN TN / OH-MS RIVER CONFLUENCE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...172...
   
   VALID 192247Z - 192345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   171...172...CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL END VERY SHORTLY FOR WW 171 ACROSS SERN MO. 
   FURTHER S OVER WRN TN AND NERN MS...ANY REMAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL
   WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF LINE SEGMENT OVER WRN TN AND
   PERHAPS IN NERN MS.
   
   LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE COMPOSITE SHOWS STORMS PUSHING EWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF WRN TN AND NEAR THE OH/MS RIVER CONFLUENCE.  THE MOST
   ROBUST ACTIVITY IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES HAS BEEN CONFINED TO WRN
   TN...POSING THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. 
   RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NARROW THERMAL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
   LINE SEGMENT IN WRN TN EXTENDING NWD TO JUST E OF LOW LOCATED NEAR
   PAH.  CURRENT THINKING IS MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT /CHARACTERIZED AS
   MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-40 KTS/ ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER WRN TN MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. 
   HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL STABILIZATION BEGINS TO OCCUR THE NEXT 1-2
   HRS...EXPECTING SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE ACCORDINGLY.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/19/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   33778827 33768931 33918943 34868917 35988918 36288948
               36528964 36828978 37268917 37548860 37198796 36628779
               35538799 33778827