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Mesoscale Discussion 529
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...FAR WEST LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020607Z - 020800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS PERSIST. HAIL
   SIZE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AT MOST...BUT A STORM
   OR TWO MIGHT PRODUCE GOLF BALLS.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED NORTH OF THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS PRESENT ALONG THE TX TO LA COASTAL
   PLAIN. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN
   MODESTLY BUOYANT MUCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ATOP MOIST-ADIABATIC
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ROBUST SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
   AN UPPER JET IS LIKELY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER
   AND WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL. LARGER HAIL SIZES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
   COASTAL PLAIN WHERE BUOYANCY IS SOMEWHAT GREATER AND CONVECTION MAY
   REMAIN MORE DISCRETE COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30119752 31319617 32159493 32319410 32189344 31719283
               30909263 30169283 29789358 29419487 29469579 29549715
               29689748 30119752 

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Page last modified: May 02, 2016
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