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Mesoscale Discussion 530
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN/NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131...

   VALID 090048Z - 090215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED IN VICINITY...AND JUST NORTH...OF THE
   SLOW POLEWARD MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN INTO S-CENTRAL MN AND
   WEST CENTRAL-NWRN WI.  WEAKER INSTABILITY WELL NORTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT INTO W-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL MN FROM STEVENS COUNTY TO NRN CASS
   COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS WRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 131.  EVENTUAL DECREASE IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
   AFTER SUNSET SUGGESTS A NEW WW MAY NOT BE WARRANTED...BUT CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NNEWD THROUGH ERN
   SD/WRN MN.  THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA INVOF THE
   POLEWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND WEST
   CENTRAL WI SHOULD AID IN FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING NEAR
   AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR
   SUSTAINED STRONGER STORMS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
   WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL.  GIVEN
   THE NEWD TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
   FALLS...THE MIDDLE AND ERN PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO
   HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS FORMING NEAR
   THE WARM FRONT AND PRIOR TO THEIR WEAKENING WELL NORTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY.

   ..PETERS.. 05/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   45769501 45919496 46229482 46879465 46979401 46819322
               46769283 46689242 46599211 46729177 46999068 46159078
               44629038 44419049 43979074 43839171 43969224 44149256
               44419237 44799279 45339281 45249448 45479489 45769501 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2014
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