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Mesoscale Discussion 530
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...SE NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 136...

   VALID 070417Z - 070545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 136 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A
   FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS SE NEB WHERE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   MAY OCCUR. A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN SE NEB. THE SEVERE
   THREAT ACROSS CNTRL KS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
   FROM WRN KS NWD INTO CNTRL NEB WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN WRN NEB.
   A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS NRN KS EXTENDING
   NEWD INTO SE NEB WHERE A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
   ONGOING. THIS CONVECTION IS NEAR THE AXIS OF A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL
   JET. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON
   THE HASTINGS WSR-88D VWP SUGGESTS THAT A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
   FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
   STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE WITH A HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT.

   FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL KS...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE
   THREAT IS DIMINISHING. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
   STILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR NEAR THE OK-KS STATE-LINE...WW 136
   COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY FOR PARTS OF SCNTRL KS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   37079696 37069787 37499825 39709822 40339790 41019651
               40949580 40409541 39799526 37579621 37079696 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2015
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