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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN KY/MIDDLE AND ERN TN/NERN
AL/NWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 190652Z - 190815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOW-END WIND/BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS
PRESENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS REVEAL SOME
INTENSIFICATION/SHARPENING OF A LONG-LIVED/FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. HOWEVER...DOWNWARD
LIGHTNING TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONFIRM OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
REVEALING LIMITED/RELATIVELY SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THESE
THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR
APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HAVING SAID THAT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE STRONG...WITH
VEERING/RAPIDLY INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AT
1.5 KM AND 70 KT AT 3 KM PER AREA VAD WIND PROFILES. THIS DEGREE OF
SHEAR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A
BRIEF TORNADO REMAINS NON-ZERO -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN A CUSP ALONG
THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ENVIRONMENTAL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/19/2013
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 33418522 33028623 33308718 34118684 36058644 37138634
37338516 37338415 36228378 34018462 33418522
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