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Mesoscale Discussion 531
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0548 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF AR/LA/MS/TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137...

   VALID 021048Z - 021215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY YET OCCUR ACROSS
   MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW 137. ELSEWHERE...THE
   LOW PROBABILITY NATURE OF THE RISK SUGGESTS PORTIONS OF WW 137 COULD
   BE CANCELLED EARLY.

   DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST HOUR...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
   HAS PERSISTED BUT REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. IT APPEARS OVERALL
   INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED OWING TO OVERTURNING AND RESULTANT
   WEAKENING OF LAPSE RATES. THE RELATIVELY MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR A
   POSSIBLE STORM-SCALE INCREASE IN MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL
   WOULD BE 1) ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AS CONVECTION ALONG THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL AR/NORTH-CENTRAL LA BORDER APPROACHES THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN THIS REGION AND 2) ALONG THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHEAST TX NEAR A PROBABLE UPSTREAM FEED
   OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29859385 30049482 30329561 30789599 31349555 31579525
               31659433 32309296 33139236 33829136 33789061 33479038
               33139033 32879042 32519055 32339063 31069169 30349227
               30039274 29859385 

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Page last modified: May 02, 2016
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