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Mesoscale Discussion 533
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL GA...CNTRL SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021823Z - 021930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED COVERAGE
   IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
   AS INSOLATION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. CURRENT
   OBSERVATIONS REVEAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING THESE
   SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J PER KG AND NO
   CINH. MAIN FACTOR EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE COVERAGE IS THE
   GENERALLY WEAK WIND PROFILES. RECENT REGIONAL VAD AND MESOANALYSIS
   DATA PLACE THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND THEREFORE THE STRONGER
   BULK SHEAR -- TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...A MULTI-CELL MODE
   IS FAVORED ACROSS THE MD AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE DUE TO STORM MERGERS AND/OR WATER
   LOADING. THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
   KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WW.

   ..MOSIER/DIAL.. 05/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33688014 33028145 33058329 33408394 34228289 34808142
               34828060 34747988 34587955 34577946 34297941 33967967
               33688014 

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Page last modified: May 02, 2016
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