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Mesoscale Discussion 534
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INTO NERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071844Z - 072045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ARC NWD ACROSS
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO SRN KS EMANATING FROM THE MCS OVER
   SWRN OK. AREAS OF HEATING HAVE HELPED THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S AS A RESULT OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. 

   SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR LONG-LIVED/ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
   HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP AND POCKETS OF
   HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO AID UPDRAFT INTENSITY. THE RESULT WILL BE
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 05/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36979804 37319926 37349995 37150048 37280078 37870058
               38559897 39379769 39819707 39699649 39349634 38529663
               37699693 37069720 36879747 36979804 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2015
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