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Mesoscale Discussion 534
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0534
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC...S-CNTRL/SE VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021843Z - 021945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS
   STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVATIONS REVEAL TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
   INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MID 60S/ ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J PER KG.
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INSTABILITY CLOSE TO
   CURRENTLY OBSERVED VALUES DESPITE PERSISTENT HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
   CONTINUED MIXING AND RESULTING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN VA WHERE THE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS
   SPREADS WILL BE GREATER. SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST UPDRAFTS BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SRN
   FRINGE OF THE BETTER FLOW ALOFT...LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION AND
   SUSTAINED UPDRAFT STRENGTH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..MOSIER/DIAL.. 05/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36877845 37837776 37647682 36887652 35117745 34607865
               34907970 35617978 36437878 36877845 

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