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Mesoscale Discussion 535
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071947Z - 072145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
   THREAT. A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS.

   DISCUSSION...SMALL STORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
   SERN CO WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR HAIL GIVEN COOL
   PROFILES ALOFT. HODOGRAPH LENGTH IS BEING AUGMENTED BY WEAK ELY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP STORMS MOVE/PROPAGATE IN AN
   ELY DIRECTION. CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO SURVIVE INTO
   THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT. ERN EXTENT OF THE
   THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE NWWD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO
   SWRN KS.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 05/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36770288 37240458 37910533 38480530 38740481 38640382
               38570254 38400117 37960079 37410088 36780163 36660226
               36770288 

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