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Mesoscale Discussion 535
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0946 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091446Z - 091715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL/WIND
   RISK INTO MIDDAY.  IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER A WATCH IS NEEDED IN
   THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...AT LEAST WEAK MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREADING EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG BEND REGION.  THIS
   FORCING...PERHAPS COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...MAY
   BE AIDING THE ISOLATED VIGOROUS ONGOING STORM TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
   OF HONDO...AND OTHER SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

   THE STORM APPROACHING THE HONDO/KERRVILLE AREA MAY HAVE ALSO BEEN
   BRIEFLY ENHANCED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL SURGE OF COOLER
   AND DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY REGION.  WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...ARE CERTAINLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS ...LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING...IN GENERAL...IS WEAK...AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER IT
   WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS STORMS INTO MIDDAY.  THE
   MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY AWAIT STRONGER
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 05/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29400134 29650094 29730038 30170007 30379964 29949877
               29459877 28889910 28630043 28150079 28390144 29400134 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2014
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