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Mesoscale Discussion 535
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN VA NWD INTO THE D.C. AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138...139...

   VALID 022234Z - 022330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   138...139...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /50-65 MPH
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS S-CNTRL VA NEWD TO THE
   CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A THETA-E
   AXIS EXTENDING FROM NERN NC NWD TO THE POTOMAC RIVER VALLEY.  RADAR
   IMAGERY AROUND 2230Z SHOWS MULTIPLE STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS FROM NEAR THE GREATER D.C. AREA SWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE VA
   NEAR THE I-81 AND I-95 CORRIDORS AND A CLUSTER PROPAGATING NWD ON
   OUTFLOW INTO S-CNTRL VA.  STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT IN AREA
   VWP DATA SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR THE LARGEST HAIL WILL OCCUR
   GENERALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF VA /50-KT VS. 35-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/
   WHERE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST.  NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT
   ALGORITHM AND MRMS MESH DATA SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL SIZE
   WITH THE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT NEAR D.C. MAY BE NEAR 2 INCHES IN
   DIAMETER.  FARTHER S...LESS-ORGANIZED STORMS /MULTICELLS/ WILL POSE
   A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUST THREAT AS THE STORM CLUSTER MOVE
   GENERALLY IN A ENEWD DIRECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING
   HOURS.

   ..SMITH.. 05/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36767902 37737917 39027699 37727628 36737675 36767902 

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Page last modified: May 02, 2016
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