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Mesoscale Discussion 536
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX AND SRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 072051Z - 072245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO
   SRN OK AND NCNTRL TX THIS EVENING. A NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND...BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...MCS FROM WRN OK SWWD THROUGH NWRN TX IS MOVING
   GENERALLY EWD AT 15 TO 20 KT. OTHER DISCRETE CELLS ARE FORMING IN
   NCNTRL TX AHEAD OF THE LINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
   ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-3000
   J/KG MLCAPE AND MINIMAL CAP REMAINING. VWP DATA SHOW LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   IS WEAK WITH SMALL HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH A
   DEEP LAYER IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND STORM ORGANIZATION. THE
   STORMS WITHIN THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE...AND SOME
   OF THE DISCRETE CELLS IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO
   SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
   THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME
   INCREASE IN THE LLJ WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ENHANCE 0-1
   KM HODOGRAPHS AND SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW
   TORNADOES.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 05/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34289747 34309673 34169576 33079621 32459764 32959883
               33589810 34289747 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2015
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