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Mesoscale Discussion 536
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL AND SE MO INTO PARTS OF CNTRL AND
   SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 091646Z - 091745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT ONE OR MORE SEVERE
   WEATHER WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS EARLY
   AS THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

   DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF A
   70 KT 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE
   PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE BEEN SPREADING EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR OF
   SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS JET STREAK WILL
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT NOSES TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
   AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

   ONGOING STORMS LIKELY HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...AND A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS STILL ONLY SLOWLY
   RECOVERING FROM THE INFLUENCE PRIOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
   OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL HEATING AND
   DESTABILIZATION IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS...ROUGHLY THROUGH
   WEST PLAINS AND FARMINGTON MO INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE ST. LOUIS
   METRO AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS
   REGION THROUGH THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
   STORM DEVELOPMENT ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GROW.  

   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH INCREASING
   INSOLATION...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE THAN
   FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS AND AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED
   BY THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 05/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37679230 38609121 39259022 40238923 39878772 39118749
               37558880 37019014 36639121 36739262 37679230 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2014
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