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Mesoscale Discussion 536
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...WRN AND CNTRL NC...NRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031757Z - 032030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP FROM NRN SC NWD INTO SRN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW
   ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
   FROM CNTRL VA SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL NC INTO NWRN SC. SFC DEWPOINTS
   ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S
   TO NEAR 70 F. AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS DEVELOPED
   ON THE WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   RECENTLY INITIATED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN NC AND NRN SC OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING STORM ROTATION MAY OCCUR WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND
   AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SC AND WCNTRL NC WHERE
   INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN VA...THE SEVERE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34488202 35108187 36388094 36978015 36907813 36147800
               34667901 34177960 34068022 34088113 34288184 34488202 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2016
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