|
| Mesoscale Discussion 536 |
|
< Previous MD
Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT MON APR 20 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NC/SOUTHEAST VA+
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 201622Z - 201745Z
MONITORING FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO
SOUTHEAST VA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT TERM NEED FOR A WATCH IS
UNCLEAR...ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT/POSSIBLE WATCH APPEARS MORE
CERTAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS NORTHEAST ADVANCING DRY SLOT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA IN IMMEDIATE WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AND INCREASING/DEEPENING CUMULIFORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VA. WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS OWING TO TEMPERATURES WARMING
THROUGH THE 70S F...A RECENT INCREASE HAS BEEN NOTED WITH TSTMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NC /NEW BERN TO WASHINGTON AREAS/ OVER THE PAST
HOUR. GIVEN PERCEIVED BOUT OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING...POTENTIAL
STORM VIGOR IS IN QUESTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...A
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE BASED SEVERE/SUPERCELL THREAT IF TSTMS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE/MATURE IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT/CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE
SHORT TERM...BUT REGARDLESS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONE OR
MORE WATCHES ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 04/20/2009
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
LAT...LON 37417728 36987598 35117592 34587741 35177828 36287817
37417728
|
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|