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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN SC...ERN PANHANDLE OF
FL...ERN/SRN GA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...132...
VALID 192029Z - 192230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
129...132...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREAS...OFFERING PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. COLD
FRONT CLOSELY FOLLOWS PRIMARY/WRN CONVECTIVE BAND...AND WWS MAY BE
CLEARED BEHIND THAT ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
ACROSS PORTIONS NRN FL NOT NOW IN WW 132...IN CASE ANY OF THOSE
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED...PER EARLIER COORD W/WFO JAX.
DISCUSSION...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND WAS EVIDENT FROM SALUDA COUNTY
SC SSWWD ACROSS WAKULLA COUNTY FL AS OF 2015Z...MOVING WITH NET EWD
COMPONENT OF ABOUT 25 KT. LOCAL ACCELERATIONS ARE EXPECTED WHEREVER
FASTER-MOVING BOW/LEWP ELEMENTS OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO MAIN SQUALL
LINE...BKN BAND OF TSTMS...LOCATED NEAR TBR-VLD LINE AS OF
2015Z...MAY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME MORE OF A SVR THREAT
FROM SAV REGION INTO SERN SC.
BUOYANCY SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK OVER WARM SECTOR...WITH MODIFIED FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE MAXIMIZED IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WHERE
SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. RIBBON OF
BETTER-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR IS EVIDENT FROM NRN FL NWD ACROSS
SERN GA THEN NEWD OVER CENTRAL SC...WITH DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOWERS CAPE SOMEWHAT...IT STILL IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SFC-BASED SVR. ACCOMPANYING FACTOR OF SUBCLOUD EVAPORATIVE
POTENTIAL SUPPLEMENTS PRECIP LOADING...AS WELL AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER
FOR MORE ORGANIZED BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES...IN SUPPORTING DAMAGING-WIND
THREAT. 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE SHOULD PERSIST JUST AHEAD
OF MAIN QLCS ACROSS AREA.
..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2013
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30018449 31398347 33138218 33938180 33878004 33508009
33097929 32608004 32098076 31418123 30678142 30808186
30658204 30418203 30358204 30368220 30548228 30598285
29518338 29668340 29878362 30088397 30018449
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