MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT MON APR 20 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NC/SOUTHEAST VA+
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 201622Z - 201745Z
   
   MONITORING FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN NC INTO
   SOUTHEAST VA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT TERM NEED FOR A WATCH IS
   UNCLEAR...ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT/POSSIBLE WATCH APPEARS MORE
   CERTAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS NORTHEAST ADVANCING DRY SLOT
   ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA IN IMMEDIATE WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AND INCREASING/DEEPENING CUMULIFORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VA. WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED
   BOUNDARY LAYER PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS OWING TO TEMPERATURES WARMING
   THROUGH THE 70S F...A RECENT INCREASE HAS BEEN NOTED WITH TSTMS
   ACROSS NORTHEAST NC /NEW BERN TO WASHINGTON AREAS/ OVER THE PAST
   HOUR. GIVEN PERCEIVED BOUT OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING...POTENTIAL
   STORM VIGOR IS IN QUESTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...A
   MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES
   WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE BASED SEVERE/SUPERCELL THREAT IF TSTMS
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE/MATURE IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE BASED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT/CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE
   SHORT TERM...BUT REGARDLESS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONE OR
   MORE WATCHES ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/20/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
   
   LAT...LON   37417728 36987598 35117592 34587741 35177828 36287817
               37417728