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Mesoscale Discussion 537
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072241Z - 080015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOW
   ROLLING PLAINS SEWD INTO WCNTRL TX FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   EARLY THIS EVENING. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THE MORE INTENSE CORES. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX
   AND A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE LOW
   ROLLING PLAINS NEWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. A SHORT LINE SEGMENT IS
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK.
   AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANALYZED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F.
   THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE
   WSR-88D VWP AT ABILENE SHOWS GRADUAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT BELOW 3 KM
   AND AMPLE FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO
   40 KT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A LINE
   MOVES SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
   ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE CURRENT STORM MODE IS
   LINEAR. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY
   IF A COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP. THE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM MAY ALSO RESULT IN HAIL
   WITH THE STRONGER CORES.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33099874 33360059 33260082 32920083 32710065 32269973
               31879926 31609876 31809777 32719787 33099874 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2015
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