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Mesoscale Discussion 537
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL SC...CNTRL/SE GA...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031907Z - 032030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W-CNTRL SC SWWD INTO THE CNTRL
   FL PANHANDLE AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES. TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND AN APPROACHING SPEED
   MAX PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. PARTLY
   CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
   70S/LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE WARM AND
   MOIST CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J PER KG
   DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BETTER MID-LEVEL FLOW /AND
   BY EXTENSION SHEAR/ IS DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE REGION BUT RECENT
   MESOANALYSIS AND VAD DATA SUGGEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30
   KT...WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION AND
   UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AND TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 05/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30838284 30268446 30228569 30618610 32008480 32748400
               33998231 33598111 31838167 30838284 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2016
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