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Mesoscale Discussion 537
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY...CNTRL TX...SE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134...

   VALID 091900Z - 092030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW 134 WITH
   THE THREAT OF SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
   POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/SE TX. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS THIS
   REGION FOR A POTENTIAL WW. PROBABILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS 40
   PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...SVR WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW
   134 WHERE A FEW SVR TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. TSTM ACROSS
   UVALDE...MEDINA...FRIO...AND ZAVALA COUNTIES HAS RECENTLY BECOME
   OUTFLOW DOMINATE AND TRENDED TOWARDS MORE OF A WIND THREAT. OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM THE STORM IN COMAL AND HAYS COUNTIES IS INTERACTING
   WITH STORMS FARTHER SE...RESULTING IN SOME INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN
   THE GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITHIN MANY OF THE
   STORMS IN THIS WW WILL LIKELY BE TRANSIENT WITH A MULTICELL MODE
   BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES. MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT WITH AT LEAST
   SOME POSSIBILITY OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE.  

   SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CINH HAS ERODED ACROSS CNTRL/SE TX. A
   MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ BENEATH AT LEAST
   MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J PER KG/ WITH INCREASING TSTM
   COVERAGE EXPECTED. LIKE AREAS FARTHER W...SHEAR IS WEAK WITH A
   MULTICELL MODE FAVORED. TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WW. WATCH PROBABILITY IN THIS AREA IS 40 PERCENT.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29270070 30100025 31469746 31989560 31189496 30199566
               28559815 28019992 29270070 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2014
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