Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 538
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 538 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...VA...SRN MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031948Z - 032145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
   OF CNTRL AND NRN VA EXTENDING INTO SRN MD. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
   MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW OVER CNTRL VA
   WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS WRN VA INTO WRN NC.
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ALONG THE SFC
   TROUGH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 60S F. SFC TEMPS ARE APPROACHING 80 F WHICH IS RESULTING
   IN WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL VA. IN SPITE OF WEAK
   INSTABILITY...SOME OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
   LIMITS DUE TO MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D
   VWPS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD AID DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT
   AND MAKE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS A POSSIBILITY. IN
   ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C ALONG WITH CONTINUED
   DESTABILIZATION COULD ALSO AID IN HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38337654 37677681 37117726 36827787 36807845 36877913
               37197967 37697943 39047782 38827689 38337654 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 03, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities