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Mesoscale Discussion 538
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...CNTRL AND SRN IL...IND...WRN AND
   CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135...

   VALID 091935Z - 092130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE WITH CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  A NEW SEVERE WEATHER
   WATCH EAST OF WW 135 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

   DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY WITH INSOLATION.  DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
   MISSOURI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO PARTS OF INDIANA AND
   WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH 22-23Z WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
   MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A WEAKENING
   500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE.  NEW STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR DECATUR
   IL...AND MOST INTENSE CURRENT STORM APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
   TRACKING EAST OF THE CARBONDALE IL AREA...INTO THE VICINITY OF
   EVANSVILLE BY AROUND 21Z...AND EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH SHORTLY
   THEREAFTER.  FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO AN ORGANIZING
   MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-50+ KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH PEAK LATE
   AFTERNOON HEATING.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 05/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   36489104 37249056 38119033 39148907 39758839 40198803
               40548675 39848626 39328618 38458632 37028777 36019010
               36489104 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2014
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