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Mesoscale Discussion 539
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / NERN AND ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032158Z - 032300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING GUSTS /50-65 MPH/ WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1006-MB
   LOW NEAR RIC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD OVER THE WRN PART OF
   THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CAPE FEAR NWD
   INTO SERN VA WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AMIDST MID 70S TEMPS. 
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS PORTION OF NC/VA HAS BEEN
   LARGELY VOID OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BUBBLING CU
   FIELD.  AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
   PIVOT TOWARDS THE REGION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
   BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA.

   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW THIS REGION OVER ERN NC/SERN VA HAS
   BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/. 
   40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING
   THE POSSIBILITY FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.  AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY
   THIS EVENING AS STORM ACTIVITY PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE REGION.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 05/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34987832 36677808 37047718 37397629 37327583 35587538
               35047574 34337707 34987832 

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Page last modified: May 03, 2016
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