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Mesoscale Discussion 539
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...ARKLATEX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092018Z - 092215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ANTICIPATED
   LOW SVR COVERAGE LIMITS WATCH PROBABILITY AT THE MOMENT.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   ACROSS NE TX/ARKLATEX. LOW-LEVELS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
   THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH RESULTANT MLCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN
   2000 J PER KG. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INITIATE ALONG THE
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES CREATED BY
   ONGOING/NEWLY DEVELOPING TSTMS. AREAS TO THE E /NE LA...S-CNTRL AND
   ERN AR/ HAVE NOT RECOVERED AS QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF PREVIOUS
   CONVECTION WITH MOST TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THE MD
   AREA. 

   BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA IS WEAK WITH A MULTICELL/PULSE CONVECTIVE
   MODE FAVORED. AS SUCH...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH
   MANY UPDRAFTS WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING SVR STRENGTH. ISOLATED SVR
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT ANTICIPATED LOW SEVERE
   COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31919537 33459533 34089482 34309420 33849264 31749296
               31169402 31189474 31919537 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2014
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