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Mesoscale Discussion 539
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0539
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0619 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TO SE OK...NCNTRL TO NE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 141...

   VALID 072319Z - 080045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 141
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES EWD INTO SE OK AND ACROSS NORTH TX.
   LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY OCCUR
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS AN MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE EARLY THIS
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM NW TX EXTENDING NNEWD INTO CNTRL OK...ALONG WHICH A
   LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING. AHEAD OF THE
   LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS ECNTRL OK AND NE TX ARE IN THE UPPER 60S
   AND LOWER 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO
   2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE FORT WORTH WSR-88D VWP SHOWS
   VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AND AMPLE SPEED SHEAR
   MAINLY ABOVE 3 KM. THIS IS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 60
   KT WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM JUST NORTH OF FORT WORTH NWD INTO ECNTRL
   OK WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS STRONGER DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
   SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH
   WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A LINE OF STORMS NEAR AND TO THE
   NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST TO
   THE NORTH OF FORTH WORTH. THESE ROTATING STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO EARLY THIS
   EVENING.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35499748 33749786 33199806 32939793 32899616 33279558
               34549540 35019562 35469621 35499748 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2015
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