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Mesoscale Discussion 542
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL NY AND NRN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092150Z - 092315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN
   INTO CENTRAL NY AND IN NRN PA AS A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION
   ADVANCES ENEWD DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2135Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A N-S BAND OF
   CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE ONTARIO
   THROUGH WRN NY /JUST E OF KBUF/ AND INTO NWRN PA /WRN MCKEAN
   COUNTY/.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ATTENDANT TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
   NNEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES/ADJACENT ONTARIO.  ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NY AND NRN
   PA...A CORRIDOR OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM
   WRN-NRN PA INTO WRN-CENTRAL NY...PER STRONG SURFACE HEATING ---
   TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S...COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE A FEW
   STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS AS THE CONVECTION ADVANCES EWD AT 35-40 KT.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 05/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   43047836 43287746 43287629 43057597 42097665 41617752
               41237829 41257888 41497898 42327877 43047836 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2014
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