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Mesoscale Discussion 542
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL KEYS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 042018Z - 042245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
   WRN FL KEYS BY 22Z. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT
   APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED ABOUT
   75 STATUTE MILES WEST OF KEY WEST MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. A FEW
   ORGANIZED STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE LINE
   INCLUDING A ROTATING COMMA HEAD ON THE NRN END AND TRAILING BOWING
   SEGMENT. UNLIKE FARTHER NORTH OVER THE FL PENINSULA...THE ATMOSPHERE
   OVER THE KEYS HAS NOT BEEN OVERTURNED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MOREOVER...VWP DATA SHOW A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WINDS ACCOMPANYING A
   PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE LAST COUPLE
   OF HOURS. LATEST KEY WEST VWP INDICATE 45 KT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS STORMS COULD MAINTAIN SOME
   ORGANIZED STRUCTURES AS THEY CONTINUE EWD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WRN
   FL KEYS THIS EVENING.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24848120 24948081 24798073 24668092 24478164 24548197
               24738171 24848120 

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Page last modified: May 04, 2016
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