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Mesoscale Discussion 542
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0857 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NM AND TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 081357Z - 081530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE
   AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NM AND THE
   TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE RISK
   SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME A CONCERN BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK.

   DISCUSSION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED
   NEAR/EAST OF THE TX/NM BORDER VICINITY IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
   CLOVIS/WEST OF LUBBOCK AS OF 1345Z. A LEAD WEAK/EMBEDDED IMPULSE MAY
   BE INFLUENCING THIS DEVELOPMENT NEAR A BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
   CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWARD-RETURNING MOISTURE WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 60S
   F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM MIDLAND AND
   AMARILLO /WHICH WAS NORTH OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/ REFLECT VERY
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITH
   RELATIVELY STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF
   40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SCENARIO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF INITIALLY
   ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...WITH SURFACE-BASED
   STORMS INCLUDING A TORNADO RISK POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE OF A
   CONCERN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34160345 34920248 34700010 33079957 32240069 34160345 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2015
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