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Mesoscale Discussion 544
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IL...WRN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081759Z - 082030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS INTO
   WESTERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND. WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE
   OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN IL
   OVER THE LAST 1-2 HRS...IN ADVANCE OF AN MCV APPROACHING THE AREA
   FROM SERN MO. WHILE SOME CIRRUS SHADING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED MODERATE DESTABILIZATION TO
   OCCUR...WITH MLCAPE VALUES RISING TO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE PER
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS. WIND PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED STRUCTURES...WITH MODEST SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW RESULTING IN
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   RELATIVELY HIGH PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS
   WITH DISCRETE CELLS...AND A COUPLE BOWING STRUCTURES MAY EVENTUALLY
   CONSOLIDATE WITH A LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND RISK. 

   ONGOING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK SFC
   BOUNDARY NOTED ACROSS CNTRL IL. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LIMITED
   MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS
   TIME...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF MORE FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF WIND THREAT.

   ..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 05/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   38068995 39198984 40528964 41198946 41998793 41978673
               41278647 40608645 39588667 38768770 38478828 37958944
               38068995 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2015
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