Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 544
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 544 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0625 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN IL...EAST CENTRAL/SERN
   MO...SWRN/SRN IND...WRN/NWRN KY...AND FAR NERN AR AND ADJACENT NWRN
   TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135...

   VALID 092325Z - 100030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS
   MAINLY INVOF THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TO SWRN IL /NEAR AND SOUTH OF
   A LINE FROM DNV TO BETWEEN ALN AND BLV/...AND FROM SERN MO INTO
   WRN-NWRN KY AND FAR SRN IND.  COUNTIES ACROSS SERN IL SHOULD TEND TO
   HAVE LESS OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO THE EVENING AS THIS AREA
   HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY STORMS THAT HAVE NOW MOVED EWD INTO SWRN IND.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR NWRN OH SWWD THROUGH NRN IND
   TO NEAR THE IND/IL BORDER AT DNV...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL IL /IN
   MOULTRIE COUNTY/...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS SAME
   BOUNDARY IN SERN MO.  MEANWHILE...STRONG TO...AT TIMES...SEVERE
   STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO FORM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF
   STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING FAR SRN IND...NWRN-WRN KY INTO NERN AR. 

   IN THE SHORT-TERM...FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL SPREAD ENEWD FROM NRN/CENTRAL IL TOWARD LOWER MI.  THIS
   COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS IL TO SERN MO WILL SUPPORT NEW
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  BULK SHEAR IS STRONGER
   ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE SHORT-TERM TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND
   SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  FARTHER NE INTO NRN IND AND NWRN
   OH...THE INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONGER ACTIVITY.

   THE STORMS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 135 AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IND
   AND NERN AR ARE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE. 
   THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ONGOING
   STORMS...AND BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
   EVENING...SUCH THAT A NEW WW IS UNLIKELY TO THE E AND S OF THE
   CURRENT WATCH.

   THESE SCENARIOS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
   HRRR...WITH STRONGER STORMS TENDING TO WEAKEN AFTER 01Z AS
   INSTABILITY AND/OR SHEAR GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 05/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38108753 38608619 38578538 37668570 37118689 37038761
               36578852 36268916 35819001 35729073 36239081 36689105
               37479117 38069058 38459027 38838997 39438952 39778870
               40158762 40208733 39028748 38728865 38298917 37758922
               37548892 37698842 38108753 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 10, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities