Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 544
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 544 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD...CENTRAL/SRN MN...NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062019Z - 062245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z REVEALED A SURFACE LOW OVER
   SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
   ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
   PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
   MN. THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST...AND
   LIE FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY
   00Z/7 PM CDT.

   STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN
   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
   WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AVERAGING IN THE UPPER
   40S/LOWER 50S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE COLD
   FRONT...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR
   THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. DESPITE GENERALLY
   WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY...CONTINUED HEATING AND FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING. UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
   INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR LOCALLY
   STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...HOWEVER THE
   EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE AND BRIEF TIME FRAME SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WATCH.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 05/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44369708 45179489 45669357 46239224 46339130 45929102
               45099168 44179352 43799488 43359674 43259838 43879847
               44369708 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 06, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities