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Mesoscale Discussion 545
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0545
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...EXTREME SE WY...FAR SW NEB...NW KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 071729Z - 071900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
   BETWEEN 19-20Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
   COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...BUILDING CU AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL CO.
   ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT WAS EVIDENT NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF
   ERODING STATUS FIELD SOUTH OF DEN. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   STRETCHED W-E FROM NE CO ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. MEANWHILE...A
   DRYLINE WAS NOTED FROM ERN CO INTO FAR ERN NM/APPROACHING THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES. THIS DRYLINE SHOULD SURGE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
   TOWARD WESTERN KS. INITIAL STORM INITIATION WILL BE NEAR THE TRIPLE
   POINT/SFC LOW IN THE DEN VICINITY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING
   BOTH ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM E-CNTRL CO INTO WRN KS AND ALONG THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NE CO INTO NW KS/SW NEB. 

   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
   STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO SUPERCELLS. LONG...STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPHS ABOVE THE LOWEST KM OR SO WILL SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS
   WITH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 DEG
   C/KM PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE HAIL /PERHAPS SOME
   GREATER THAN 2 INCHES/ BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL RESULT IN
   HIGH-BASED CELLS WITH AN ACCOMPANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WHILE SETUP
   IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE DEARTH OF LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE...ONE OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NE CO INTO
   ADJACENT PARTS OF KS/NEB NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL
   FLOW AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEWPOINTS RESIDE.  A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD
   AREA WITH A SECOND WATCH LIKELY NEEDED BY AROUND 21Z.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39039958 37410045 37100062 37110114 37290140 38080164
               38450185 38740232 38940290 39100350 39140402 39370449
               39600477 39960494 40740499 41070459 41260413 41330310
               41240210 40820096 40350028 39279970 39039958 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2016
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