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Mesoscale Discussion 546
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE/E CENTRAL OK INTO NW AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 100452Z - 100615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FROM SE OK
   INTO NW AR...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.  A WW IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE
   OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
   REMAINS INVOF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM SE OK INTO NW AR...WHICH IS
   HELPING TO MAINTAIN MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.  THIS AREA WILL BE
   BRUSHED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA INCREASE.  THE NET RESULT WILL BE
   SOME INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE SOME
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.  STILL..BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY ARE IN QUESTION...AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
   OVERNIGHT.

   ..THOMPSON.. 05/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36349361 36459289 36349238 36029221 35749243 35299319
               34539427 34039504 34129548 34489564 35389509 35939451
               36349361 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2014
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