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Mesoscale Discussion 546
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IL...SWRN IND...NRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071845Z - 072115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSE A RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
   LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
   SECTIONS OF INDIANA/ILLINOIS. THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
   WARM/DESTABILIZE...AND CONTINUED HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF
   LOWER/MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF
   MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. 

   A FEW BRIEF/STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA
   THIS AFTERNOON...AND WEAKENING INHIBITION AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE
   FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS AND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
   SOUTHEAST-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
   RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
   SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA PRIOR TO 21Z.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 05/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39908981 39568808 38798510 37988497 37418540 37608693
               37998812 38318891 38648945 38948989 39219023 39779034
               39908981 

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Page last modified: May 07, 2016
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