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Mesoscale Discussion 546
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...EXTREME NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081937Z - 082100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
   AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
   AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
   SERN CO IN A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT
   BEING PROVIDED BY A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN CO/SRN WY.
   CLEARING AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALLOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
   DEVELOP...WITH MLCAPE RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG PER RECENT OBJECTIVE
   MESOANALYSIS AND MODIFIED PFCS. FAVORABLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED DISCRETE ACTIVITY. WW
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HOUR.

   ..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 05/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36920516 38000510 38950487 39290445 38840370 38250319
               37260302 36910323 36690428 36790498 36920516 

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