MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0928 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 200228Z - 200400Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
   
   DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE THAT CROSSED THE HUDSON
   VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 00Z ALY RAOB INDICATED VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
   FOR A SFC-BASED PARCEL...WITH MODEST CINH ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUX
   OF A STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IS
   CHARACTERISTIC OVER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AN ISOLATED
   STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THE MOST ROBUST/BOWING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OWING TO STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED JUST ABOVE THE SFC IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL
   LINE PER VWP DATA. HOWEVER...EVEN FURTHER LESSENING OF
   INSTABILITY...AND STRENGTHENING OF CINH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   NOCTURNAL DIABATIC COOLING...WILL LIKELY PRESENT DELETERIOUS EFFECTS
   FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER. AS
   SUCH...CONVECTION SHOULD GREATLY STRUGGLE TO ENHANCE SFC WIND GUSTS.
   A WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/20/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
   
   LAT...LON   42507322 43687266 43907115 42797095 41837142 41467203
               41227322 41417368 42507322