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Mesoscale Discussion 547
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0547
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...

   VALID 081948Z - 082115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX...WITH THE
   TORNADO RISK ALSO POTENTIALLY INCREASING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
   TORNADO WATCH 142 CONTINUES UNTIL 22Z.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK SURFACE LOW
   BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND BIG SPRING/SNYDER AREAS AT MID-AFTERNOON...WITH
   A DRYLINE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH...AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
   FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY WSW-ENE FROM JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK TOWARD
   THE WICHITA FALLS VICINITY. GIVEN A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP /REFERENCE
   18Z MIDLAND OBSERVED SOUNDING/...REGENERATIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
   CONTINUE TO OCCUR PARTICULARLY EAST/SOUTH OF THE LUBBOCK VICINITY
   AND ACROSS THE NEARBY TX SOUTH PLAINS. THE AMBIENT AIR MASS WITHIN
   THIS CORRIDOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /2500+ J
   PER KG MLCAPE/...WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG MID/HIGHER-LEVEL
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH 50+ EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORT OF SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WHILE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
   TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE INFLUENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   /PARTICULARLY WHERE IT IS NON-PROGRESSIVE/ SUGGESTS A TORNADO RISK
   IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE LUBBOCK AREA EASTWARD ALONG THE HIGHWAY
   82/380 AND POSSIBLY HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDORS.

   ..GUYER.. 05/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34020202 34390103 34310002 33019914 32280068 32430209
               34220311 34020202 

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