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Mesoscale Discussion 548
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0532 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...MUCH OF
   KENTUCKY...AND A SMALL PART OF EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145...

   VALID 072232Z - 080030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW
   145.  A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

   DISCUSSION...A LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS SOUTHERN
   ILLINOIS AND FAR EASTERN MISSOURI OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 
   WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN/NEAR THE STL METRO AREA AND POINTS
   NORTHEAST.  THE LINEAR ORIENTATION OF THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
   30-45 KNOT DEEP SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /AROUND 1000
   J/KG MUCAPE/ WILL SUSTAIN THESE STORMS AS THEY MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD
   AT AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE WATCH AREA.  AT THIS PACE...THE
   STORMS SHOULD REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TOWARD 23-00Z.  

   DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...ANOTHER SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS
   IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE. 
   ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION IN THIS
   COMPLEX...WEAKER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A
   HIGHER DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH BOTH OF THESE COMPLEXES WILL BE
   MONITORED...AND A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
   AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY MAY BE NEEDED TOWARD 23-00Z.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39199134 39449118 39849078 39939018 39908969 39908916
               39688831 39488755 39258663 39068583 38818506 38558441
               38268406 37798382 37368376 36998383 36768411 36618443
               36618504 36748608 36878703 36968778 37238865 37578952
               37909029 38149074 38569111 38939135 39199134 

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