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Mesoscale Discussion 548
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS INTO SWRN IA...NWRN AND W CNTRL
   MO...INCLUDING THE KC METRO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 101754Z - 102000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...RAPID INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE BY
   AROUND 20-21Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO
   WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE TOPEKA KS AND THE KANSAS CITY
   MO METRO AREAS.

   DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION...IS APPARENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEVELOPING
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...THE
   LATEST RAPID REFRESH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH OTHER MODEL
   OUTPUT...SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED IN THE 850-700 MB
   LAYER...ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST OF TOPEKA KS
   INTO THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.  THIS COINCIDES WITH WHERE
   RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING...IN RESPONSE TO
   INSOLATION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR.

   WITH ADDITION SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT...INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY
   LAYER BASED PARCELS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND RAPID INTENSE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40
   KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW /STRENGTHENING TO 70-90 KT ABOVE 300 MB/
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS...AT LEAST
   INITIALLY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL.  ALTHOUGH CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BE
   SOMEWHAT MODEST IN STRENGTH...AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE-DEW
   POINT SPREADS MAY BE SIZABLE /ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW/...TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 05/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   41159617 40379482 39399300 38389318 37669381 38279590
               38569655 39369721 39949766 41159617 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2014
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