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Mesoscale Discussion 548
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE BIG BEND REGION

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082026Z - 082200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2
   HRS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
   TWO.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED E OF FST...WITH
   ADDITIONAL CU NOTED DEVELOPING RECENTLY ALONG THE DRYLINE. LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER
   NORTH...BUT CONTINUED ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE
   SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS...GIVEN
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. VERY LARGE HAIL
   WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BIG BEND
   REGION WHERE SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
   ENLARGED.

   ..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 05/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29760250 30990239 31320214 31600187 32130134 32000049
               31340018 30730006 30050019 29090044 28890054 29450089
               29660130 29810162 29760250 

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