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Mesoscale Discussion 549
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072314Z - 080045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN THIS
   AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK INSTABILITY /AROUND 500-700 J/KG MUCAPE/
   AND DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
   ONTARIO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY /WIND AND OR
   HAIL/ IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. 
   FURTHERMORE...THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IS
   EXPECTED TO LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
   WINDOW /THROUGH ABOUT 01Z/ FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39438338 39858342 40668328 41128303 41318259 41308199
               41068138 40728114 40308107 39868119 39488158 39298207
               39318277 39438338 

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