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Mesoscale Discussion 550
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 144...

   VALID 072337Z - 080100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 144
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
   TORNADO/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING
   MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEB /AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHWEST
   KS/...WHILE OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD YET
   DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS. SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 144 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   144...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST CO IN
   YUMA/PHILLIPS COUNTIES. THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
   SOUTH/WEST OF THE NEB AND KS BORDERS...BUT ADDITIONAL
   EASTERN-PERIPHERAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS ESPECIALLY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEB ALONG/NORTH OF A WEST-EAST
   FRONT.

   FARTHER SOUTH...ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING DRYLINE...OTHER
   HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR /SINCE 2215Z/
   BUT HAVE NOT REMAINED PARTICULARLY INTENSE/SUSTAINED ACROSS
   WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS IN THE WESTERNMOST TWO-TIERS OF COUNTIES.
   IT APPEARS THAT MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH LOWER 50S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH 30-DEGREE F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
   SPREADS...AND WEAK NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE /SOUTHERLY WINDS
   PREVALENT EAST AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE/ HAVE LIMITED VIGOROUS
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. EVEN SO...GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
   LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING IF/WHERE
   ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOP AND REMAIN SUSTAINED.

   ..GUYER.. 05/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40580206 40550038 39409992 37100069 37850177 39820196
               40580206 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2016
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