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Mesoscale Discussion 550
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN NEB...SWRN IA...ERN KS AND NW/W CNTRL
   INTO CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137...

   VALID 102042Z - 102215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS
   PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
   MISSOURI... INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH TO THE EAST
   OF WW 137.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL
   UNDERWAY.  THIS HAS MOSTLY BEEN FOCUSED JUST AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH...FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHWARD
   TOWARD THE WICHITA KS AREA.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH
   CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS
   BECOME FOCUSED WITHIN A ZONE ARCING FROM NORTHWEST OF TOPEKA KS INTO
   THE KANSAS CITY MO AREA.  NEW STORMS NOW APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS
   OF FORMING ALONG THIS AXIS...WHERE INHIBITION IS WEAKENING FOR
   BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE UP TO 2500 J/KG.  

   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE
   DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE ST. JOSEPH
   MO AND  KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD
   INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARD 00Z.  AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT SIZABLE LOWER
   TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS MAY BE MORE
   PROMINENT.

   ..KERR.. 05/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37119760 37839712 38759645 39549607 40469596 41339662
               42609564 41169390 40119284 39199230 38309325 37919469
               37219634 37119760 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2014
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