Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 550
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 550 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082215Z - 082345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR FURTHER
   STORM ORGANIZATION.

   DISCUSSION...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A SUPERCELL HAS
   EVOLVED OVER WILLIAMSON COUNTY ON THE SWRN FLANK OF A LARGER TSTM
   CLUSTER...AND AMIDST A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE.  THIS INSTABILITY
   IS CO-LOCATED WITH A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A VERTICALLY
   VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO PROMOTE DEEP
   UPDRAFT ROTATION.

   PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING
   STORMS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL
   AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.  AND WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THE PRESENCE OF MODEST
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A LOW-LCL BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROMOTE LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLOGENESIS AND A RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.

   DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
   RISK...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..MEAD.. 05/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30789780 31249776 31569758 31779715 31849651 31659589
               31309555 30819546 30489580 30359634 30449692 30519744
               30789780 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 08, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities