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Mesoscale Discussion 551
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MO...FAR WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 102156Z - 102300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED BY 23Z OVER NRN AND CNTRL MO AS
   SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AT
   22Z ACROSS NWRN MO...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
   SIZE HAVING BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS. MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...WITH A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
   ERN EDGE OF WW 137. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES THROUGH THE EVENING AS SOMEWHAT BETTER
   MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF A NWD MOVING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
   DRAPED NEAR A LINE FROM CDJ-COU-SUS. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...WHILE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING
   SEGMENTS DUE TO CELL MERGERS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK OF
   DAMAGING WIND THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT...BUT THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
   OVERALL TORNADO THREAT.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 05/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38349338 38509382 38799395 39209394 39859360 40289347
               40549331 40449285 39879170 39579106 39259038 38738986
               38198987 37939006 37779068 37769135 37859199 38349338 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2014
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