Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 551
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 551 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AND NE OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082224Z - 090000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ECNTRL AND
   NE OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A TORNADO THREAT COULD
   ALSO DEVELOP. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED AS CELLS APPROACH THE AREA
   FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL OK INTO SW AND CNTRL MO WITH A DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING ZONE EXTENDING EWD FROM THE FRONT INTO NW AR. A CLUSTER OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
   CNTRL OK AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS INTO NERN OK. MESOANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE
   ACROSS ERN OK IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH MODERATE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THE WSR-88D VWP AT OKLAHOMA CITY
   SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55 KT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
   THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD ERN OK EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
   SHOULD STRENGTHEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS ERN OK SUGGESTING
   THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
   POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS. ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN ORGANIZE COULD HAVE
   A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34589570 34819626 35989652 36569650 36959616 36969532
               36749459 35729457 34809482 34589570 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 09, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities