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Mesoscale Discussion 552
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145...147...

   VALID 080043Z - 080245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   145...147...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
   ILLINOIS...WHILE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS
   SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.  WW 147 CONTINUES...

   DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
   CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN SOUTHEASTERN
   ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN
   AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /AROUND 1000-1250 J/KG OF
   INSTABILITY/ AND 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR...WHICH WILL FAVOR
   COMPLEX ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT.  LATEST
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL THREATEN THE LOUISVILLE METRO
   AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   FARTHER WEST...WEAKER ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
   STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION FROM NEAR WASHINGTON/JEFFERSON
   COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS NORTHWEST TO NEAR LINCOLN COUNTY MISSOURI.  THE
   STORMS ARE LESS INTENSE THAN ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST.  CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT THE REMAINDER OF WW 145
   CAN BE CANCELLED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LESSENED THREAT.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37488808 37698858 38018908 38308932 38488939 38568934
               38608897 38618867 38748824 38898805 38998771 39018740
               39058698 38888635 38628577 38348494 38058447 37588422
               37188413 36788416 36558426 36538466 36688529 36778587
               36788653 37038726 37248772 37488808 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2016
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