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| Mesoscale Discussion 553 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240951Z - 241045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LIMITED THREAT FOR A DAMAGING GUST AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR EVOLUTION OF ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT PERTAINS TO POSSIBLE
WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A SW-NE BAND OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SERN TX NEWD INTO NWRN MS...INVOF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN LA...COINCIDENT WITH THE AREA OF GREATEST
APPARENT INSTABILITY/RICHEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. WV LOOP
REVEALS A WEAK CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
AREA TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AIDING ENVIRONMENTAL
EVOLUTION/CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY...SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW HAS INTENSIFIED TO AROUND 50 KT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURE. THIS SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- ATOP WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SELYS -- IS PROVIDING SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATION CONVECTION. INDEED...A STORM NOW CROSSING NRN
CALCASIEU/SRN BEAUREGARD PARISHES IN SWRN LA IS SHOWING FAIRLY
WELL-ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WHILE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED AREALLY...THREAT THAT A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS MAY WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION.
..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2013
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31699227 31429182 30739187 30079251 29819303 29979362
30949337 31699227
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