MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 240951Z - 241045Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...LIMITED THREAT FOR A DAMAGING GUST AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR EVOLUTION OF ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT PERTAINS TO POSSIBLE
   WW ISSUANCE.
   
   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A SW-NE BAND OF CONVECTION
   EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SERN TX NEWD INTO NWRN MS...INVOF THE
   ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
   ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN LA...COINCIDENT WITH THE AREA OF GREATEST
   APPARENT INSTABILITY/RICHEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE.  WV LOOP
   REVEALS A WEAK CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
   AREA TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AIDING ENVIRONMENTAL
   EVOLUTION/CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.
   
   DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY...SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED
   SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS MID-LEVEL
   FLOW HAS INTENSIFIED TO AROUND 50 KT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURE.  THIS SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- ATOP WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL SELYS -- IS PROVIDING SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED/ROTATION CONVECTION.  INDEED...A STORM NOW CROSSING NRN
   CALCASIEU/SRN BEAUREGARD PARISHES IN SWRN LA IS SHOWING FAIRLY
   WELL-ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  WHILE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED AREALLY...THREAT THAT A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
   HOURS MAY WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION.
   
   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   31699227 31429182 30739187 30079251 29819303 29979362
               30949337 31699227