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Mesoscale Discussion 554
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MO...WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138...

   VALID 110055Z - 110230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
   WW 138. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH PERSISTENT
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 0030Z...A SUPERCELL WHICH EVOLVED OUT OF A
   CLUSTER OF SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW
   138...WHILE A DISCRETE SUPERCELL CONTINUES ACROSS SALINE/CARROLL
   COUNTIES IN MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG AND JUST
   NORTH OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH OF A STL-COU-DMO LINE IN
   AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ASCENT TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AIDED BY A
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH
   OF THE EVENING...WITH FAVORABLY VEERING WIND PROFILES CONTINUING TO
   SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. 

   WHILE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
   TORNADO THREAT...THE PRESENCE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN
   THE VICINITY OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
   GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE TORNADO THREAT...A TORNADO WATCH
   DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...AND AN ENHANCED WIND
   THREAT WILL BE PRESENT WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY
   EVOLVE.

   ..DEAN.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38579301 38859340 39099344 39259349 39479351 39749345
               39959328 40019302 40059260 40039212 39839130 39569056
               39298969 38938953 38558960 38268999 38219038 38139087
               38209135 38249172 38319210 38579301 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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