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Mesoscale Discussion 555
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO ERN KS/WEST CENTRAL AND NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137...

   VALID 110059Z - 110230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...HAIL...SOME SIGNIFICANT /AROUND OR EXCEEDING 2 INCH
   DIAMETER/...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
   DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS WW 137.  STRONGEST-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD TEND
   TO BE CONFINED TO INVOF THE WARM FRONT IN SRN KS AND WITH A CLUSTER
   OF STORMS LOCATED JUST N/NW OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO.

   A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 03Z ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
   ERN KS ATTENDANT TO STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM
   FRONT WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NWD THROUGH THE EVENING
   AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT HAD
   MOVED INTO SRN KS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTING
   A DRY LINE IN NWRN OK /INVOF ERN HARPER COUNTY/.  THE WARM FRONT
   EXTENDED EWD THROUGH THE SRN TIER COUNTIES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SERN
   KS.  NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING INVOF THE WRN PART OF
   THIS WARM FRONT PER RADAR TRENDS IN THE FOLLOWING KS COUNTIES NRN
   HARPER...SRN KINGMAN AND BARBER...WITH THE GOES-R CLOUD TOP COOLING
   PRODUCT INDICATING THE GREATEST COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE STORMS IN
   THESE THREE KS COUNTIES.  THESE TWO KS COUNTIES ARE ALSO INVOF WHERE
   A COMPOSITE W/NWWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE WARM
   FRONT.  THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCED NEWD TO NEAR MHK AND INTO THE
   NRN SIDE OF A LONG-LIVED LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL...NOW LOCATED NEAR
   AND NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO. 

   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS WW 137 REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...WHILE FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOME
   SPLITTING STORMS.  THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J PER
   KG/ RESIDES NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN NEW
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE...THE STORM CLUSTER JUST
   N/NW OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO REMAINS WITHIN A GRADIENT OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...WITH THESE STORMS EITHER WEAKENING AS THEY TRACK INTO
   A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN NWRN MO OR THESE STORMS COULD TURN
   TOWARD THE EAST AND TRACK ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE LONG-LIVED LEFT MOVING STORM HAS
   STABILIZED SOMEWHAT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS...AS SUCH STORMS SHOULD
   HAVE DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING INTO THAT PART OF KS...AT
   LEAST UNTIL 03Z.

   ..PETERS.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   DDC...

   LAT...LON   37089875 37989915 39939900 40019863 39979683 40039560
               40569499 40579335 39679333 39409315 39229339 39229345
               38199350 37979394 37649403 37509452 37299461 37159488
               36979506 37029784 37099840 37089875 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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