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Mesoscale Discussion 555
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW TO N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 081709Z - 081845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN BY 19Z AND QUICKLY
   BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
   CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

   DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE AGITATED CU FIELD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BIG BEND AREA NORTHEAST TO THE PERMIAN BASIN
   JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
   COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING HAVING ALREADY ERODED CAPPING SHOULD
   RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS
   TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE
   HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORMS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN DISCRETE
   BEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARD BOWING SEGMENTS OR GROWING UPSCALE INTO
   AN E/NEWD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
   TRANSITION IN STORM MODE WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL TX
   BY 19Z. STORMS MAY NOT INITIATE/MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
   THE MCD AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT...WATCH
   ISSUANCE MAY BE LATER THAN FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33229892 33169849 32989821 32779808 32199819 31739852
               30399983 29670063 29460097 29470132 29570203 29680244
               30010272 30500299 31190283 32240159 32760089 33100035
               33189979 33229892 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2016
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