MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NCNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 242301Z - 250000Z
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER WRN INTO NCNTRL
   KS DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW.
   
   SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 22Z PLACES A 999 MB LOW INVOF
   LAA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING E-NEWD TOWARD NCNTRL KS...AND THEN
   WWD INTO THE DENVER METRO AREA. A HOT WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED NE ALONG THE FRONT...AUGMENTING CAP REMOVAL IN
   THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. CU HAS DEVELOPED
   WITHIN THIS REGION AS A RESULT...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE
   TO GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/FORCING. 
   
   AIRMASS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NCNTRL KS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WHILE 40S DEWPOINTS RESIDE WITHIN POST
   FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER WRN KS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP MID
   LVL LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
   NCNTRL KS AND AROUND 500-1000 J/KG FARTHER WEST. IF A STORM OR TWO
   ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING...THE STEEP
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR ALONG AND TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WOULD FAVOR
   LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/24/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   38070125 38640189 38980164 39180055 39569924 39889853
               39869778 39469771 38579886 38209978 38060033 38070125