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Mesoscale Discussion 556
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MO/WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138...

   VALID 110322Z - 110445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A BROKEN LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL APPROACH
   THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA BY 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY
   SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE WATCH UNTIL 06Z
   HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH WFO LSX.

   DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONSISTING OF SEVERAL DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
   ONGOING ACROSS E-CNTRL MO. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE ST. LOUIS
   METRO AREA BY 04Z. LATEST VAD FROM KLSX SHOWS A STRONGLY VEERING
   WIND PROFILE...WITH 0-3 KM SRH ABOVE 500 M2/S2 MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
   TO MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
   OVER THE AREA...THOUGH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING WILL TEND TO
   INCREASE INHIBITION FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH TIME. GIVEN THE
   WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED...DAMAGING WIND AND
   LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE
   STORMS...THOUGH SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SEWD EXTENT. 

   THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO EXTEND PAST THE 04Z EXPIRATION OF
   TIME OF WW138...SO AN EXTENSION UNTIL 06Z HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH
   WFO LSX. IF IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST SIGNIFICANTLY
   PAST 06Z...A NEW WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED.

   ..DEAN.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38799229 39049231 39359220 39549197 39579150 39499107
               39389071 39209005 39038966 38798949 38548951 38368955
               38138971 37958985 37779024 37719049 37769083 37929112
               38109142 38279154 38439187 38489205 38799229 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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