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Mesoscale Discussion 556
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N TX AND WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 081818Z - 082015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
   SW OK BY 21Z. ADDITIONAL STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER NW OK AND MOVE INTO
   S-CNTRL KS AS WELL. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPEND FROM NEAR
   THE RED RIVER THROUGH WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE NATURE OF THE
   CU SUGGESTS INHIBITION STILL EXISTS. BUT EXPECT INITIATION BY THE
   20-21Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WESTERN N TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK WHERE
   HEATING HAS BEEN STRONGEST AND TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 80S AS OF 18Z.
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HOVERING IN THE 62-66 DEG F RANGE ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE MCD AREA EXCEPT PORTIONS OF FAR NW OK INTO S-CNTRL KS WHERE
   UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WERE NOTED...RESULTING IN MUCAPE RANGING FROM
   1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS.
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.5 DEG C/KM PER OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL /SOME BIGGER THAN 2 INCHES/.
   SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS CURRENTLY UNIMPRESSIVE BUT
   SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME IN VICINITY OF THE BULGING
   DRYLINE. AS SUCH...A FEW HOURS OF INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH
   ISOLATED DISCRETE CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS SW OK.  

   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS NW OK AND MOVE INTO S-CNTRL KS. THESE STORMS WILL EXIST IN A
   SIMILAR BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT AS THOSE FURTHER S OVER SW OK...BUT
   QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES INTO
   S-CNTRL KS WHERE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED
   MOST OF THE DAY. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS A BIT MORE
   UNCERTAIN IN THIS AREA...THOUGH A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37499805 37089770 36679751 36099747 35019741 33769741
               33439746 33149771 33109785 33049883 33229940 33509976
               33939994 35030003 36360009 36759992 37129970 37449924
               37599866 37499805 

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