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Mesoscale Discussion 557
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 082021Z - 082115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IN SLOW
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
   GREATEST DESTABILIZATION BEING NEAR THE NW OK/S-CNTRL KS BORDER.
   CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP
   AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EITHER 1. MOVE NORTHEAST INTO S-CNTRL KS
   FROM NW OK -OR- 2. DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/WEAK
   SURFACE TROUGH INTERSECTION NEAR DDC. WHILE IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
   HOW STORMS WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. AS STORMS TRACK NORTHEAST INTO N-CNTRL KS TOWARD THE WARM
   FRONT...A TRANSITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS IS POSSIBLE...WITH AN
   INCREASING THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IF THIS OCCURS. EASTWARD EXTENT
   OF THE THREAT REMAINS UNCLEAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KS MUCH OF THE DAY. AS SUCH...THE MOSTLY
   LIKELY AREA TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS
   PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS AND A WATCH WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40019933 39979852 39929821 39659773 39069739 37929707
               37249700 36979735 36979876 37039951 37229985 37349996
               38020050 38790068 39350052 39770009 39899986 40019933 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2016
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