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Mesoscale Discussion 557
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK...NE TX AND SW AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 146...

   VALID 090343Z - 090515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 146 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX. THE THREAT MAY AFFECT WRN AR BUT IS
   EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
   HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   TO THE EAST OF WW 146.

   DISCUSSION...A LARGE MCS IS ONGOING FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER NWD
   ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK WITH WARM ADVECTION STORMS LOCATED ACROSS SW
   AR. DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   MCS...INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
   REGION. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN GENERALLY
   BELOW 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 146. ALTHOUGH MODERATE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS MAY CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD MAKE
   ANY SEVERE THREAT MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35399533 34949603 34429651 33659690 33279668 33099603
               33109406 33169345 33499295 34199302 34659313 35259379
               35399533 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2015
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