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Mesoscale Discussion 558
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0558
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1048 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PERMIAN BASIN...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 145...

   VALID 090348Z - 090515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 145 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
   BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 
   FARTHER SOUTH...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE
   DIMINISHED.  AS SUCH...TORNADO WATCH 145 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
   AT 05Z...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE
   NECESSITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVERNIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...REGENERATIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG AND TO
   THE NORTH OF AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SHACKELFORD COUNTRY
   SWWD INTO HOWARD...MARTIN AND MIDLAND COUNTIES WITH MORE RECENT
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED OVER ANDREWS COUNTY.  WHILE SOME OF THESE
   STORMS MAY BE CURRENTLY SURFACE-BASED...THE CONTINUED DE-COUPLING OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN ACTIVITY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED.  AS SUCH...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH
   05Z.  

   THEREAFTER...INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER CO
   VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER EPISODIC STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
   FROM PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO ERN NM AND POSSIBLY THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WITH LARGE HAIL
   BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND ITS POSSIBLE
   THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT TO
   ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.  HOWEVER...PRIOR TO
   THIS...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE AND TORNADO WATCH
   145 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.

   ..MEAD.. 05/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30770344 31140287 31490263 31990275 32110285 32100305
               32910302 32940007 33379988 33359913 32189920 32119975
               31689979 31540027 30430018 30350167 29900207 30770344 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2015
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