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Mesoscale Discussion 558
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0558
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082145Z - 082315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK MAY INCREASE THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND EVENTUALLY PORTIONS
   OF EASTERN NEB. MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...WHILE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS ALONG/NORTH OF A
   SLOW-NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
   GRADUALLY DESTABILIZED SINCE MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...WITH
   MIDDLE 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPEARING TO CONTRIBUTE TO AS MUCH AS
   1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. ONE STORM HAS RECENTLY
   INTENSIFIED NEAR THE LEXINGTON NEB VICINITY AS OF 2120Z. AS FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURS /ALBEIT MODEST IN MANY RESPECTS/...ADDITIONAL
   STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY A NORTHEASTWARD-SPREADING
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KS. AT THE VERY
   LEAST...WITH SUPERCELL-SUPPORTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR...ISOLATED/EPISODIC
   SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...AND
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO COULD OCCUR ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40440063 41690035 42339943 42109876 41299701 40049680
               40319734 40440063 

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Page last modified: May 08, 2016
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