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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181...
VALID 251555Z - 251730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181
CONTINUES.
LEADING THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENT RAPIDLY WEAKENED ACROSS WESTERN
LOWER MI SHORTLY AFTER 15Z WITH INITIAL REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND
35 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT
INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AFTER 18Z.
MIXED SIGNALS CONTINUE ON THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG/E OF THE
TRAILING LINE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. 12Z WHITE LAKE SOUNDING STILL
EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB. BUT... SATELLITE BASED
PRECIPITABLE WATER/12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE COLUMN
WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...TRAILING BAND OF THE LEAD STORMS MAY YET
INTENSIFY BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...12Z
HIGH-RESOLUTION NMM SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT UPSTREAM ACTIVITY EXITING
THE CHICAGO/MILWAUKEE AREAS MAY BE THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL SEVERE
EVENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
COUPLED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG DEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
REGIME...ANY LINEAR SEGMENT THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED WILL RUN THE
RISKS FOR BOWING AND PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
SEVERE RISKS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM MUSKEGON TO TAWAS CITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES GENERALLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 46.
..RACY.. 04/25/2009
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43628588 45388294 45188139 43638091 42558173 42248315
42198610 43628588
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