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Mesoscale Discussion 559
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PLAINS OF NM / TX S PLAINS / WRN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 090741Z - 090930Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE
   EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
   WILL PROBABLY BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN ARCING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE BIG COUNTRY WWD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
   AND THEN ARCING NW AND N TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS
   AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS.  A SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE PERMIAN
   BASIN AND A NWD ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY --SERVING AS A
   DELIMITER TO MARITIME AIR-- IS BEGINNING TO THE E OF THE LOW.  RADAR
   MOSAIC AND SURFACE STREAMLINES INDICATE THE PACIFIC FRONT HAS
   OVERTAKEN THE DRYLINE OVER FAR W TX AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
   OUTFLOW OVER ERN NM.  

   RECENT RADAR MOSAIC AND IR COOLING TRENDS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   STORMS OCCURRING ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA ACCOMPANYING THE
   SWRN U.S. MID-LEVEL LOW.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP THE SURFACE COOL
   DOME WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE LIFTING OF PARCELS TO THEIR LFC AND THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER TONIGHT.  

   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM SAMPLED BY THE EPZ AND ABQ
   RAOBS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL HAIL GROWTH ONCE VIGOROUS/SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFTS BECOME ESTABLISHED.  THE STRONG AND INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC
   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE.  DEPENDING ON THE PACE
   OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
   NEXT 30 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY
   BE REQUIRED.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32090338 33870403 36300439 36580253 35410188 33250162
               32350201 32090338 

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