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Mesoscale Discussion 560
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0403 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX BIG COUNTRY / WRN N-CNTRL TX / SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 090903Z - 091000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP.  WHILE A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   HAZARD/COVERAGE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING
   ORGANIZATION AND A SEVERE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AROUND 09Z SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG
   STORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE TX BIG COUNTRY
   WITH OTHER WEAKER WARM-ADVECTION STORMS DEVELOPING IN THEIR WAKE
   FARTHER W/NW.  SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE EFFECTIVE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING NWD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
   STORM ACTIVITY W OF ABI.  THE INFLUX OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG
   BUOYANCY /2000-3000 J PER KG MUCAPE/ PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. 
   ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE A NEAR-SURFACE
   STABLE LAYER...IT IS PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE A FEED OF NEAR-SURFACE PARCELS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
   ACQUIRED BY STRENGTHENING UPDRAFTS.  IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WOULD PROBABLY ENSUE AND A MORE
   ROBUST HAIL RISK WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP.  UNLESS THIS OCCURS...CURRENT
   THINKING IS THE HAIL RISK WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED AND NOT
   REQUIRE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32670062 34029994 35279996 35199852 34299784 33209808
               32589863 32060016 32670062 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2015
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