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Mesoscale Discussion 561
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0561
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0551 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / SWRN KS / WRN OK / TX-OK PANHANDLES / TX
   LOW ROLLING PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147...

   VALID 091051Z - 091215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX AND EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN
   OK...SWRN KS...AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN CO.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX
   BORDER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LEAD MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
   MAXIMUM APPROACHING THE S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM THE W EARLY THIS
   MORNING.  THE STRONG QG FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE
   BUOYANCY AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE YIELDED AN ENVIRONMENT
   FAVORABLE FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF A LARGE-HAIL THREAT.  CONFIDENCE IS
   HIGH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO
   WRN OK AND SWRN KS AND PERHAPS INCLUDE EXTREME SERN CO.  AS A
   RESULT...AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING /1130-1230Z/ TO ADDRESS THE EVOLVING
   THREAT.

   ..SMITH.. 05/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34170255 35360263 36100332 37650294 38650201 38669982
               37849859 36069830 34439848 33180040 34170255 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2015
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