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Mesoscale Discussion 562
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0562
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB AND NORTHEAST KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151...

   VALID 090048Z - 090245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
   SOME TORNADO RISK NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEB-KS BORDER VICINITY...WILL
   CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151 CONTINUES
   UNTIL 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN
   ADDITIONAL /OR REPLACEMENT/ WATCH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS
   INTO SOUTHEAST NEB.

   DISCUSSION...CELL MERGERS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS HAVE LED TO AN
   UPSCALE-GROWING LINEARLY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A
   SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH A TORNADIC HISTORY PERSISTS ACROSS
   EASTERN ROOKS/WESTERN OSBORNE COUNTIES KS AS OF 0045Z/745 PM CDT.
   SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS
   AND POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY A PART OF NORTHEAST KS...WHILE LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS/BOUTS OF HAIL WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB. THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...AND COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF
   CURRENT WATCHES 150/151 TOWARD/AFTER 930 PM CDT. 00Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDINGS FROM OMAHA/TOPEKA SAMPLED A RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIR
   MASS...BUT AT LEAST A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB COULD
   WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH. FARTHER NORTH...AN EPISODIC SEVERE RISK
   MAY CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
   NEB...BUT OVERALL UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT INTENSITIES SHOULD WANE THROUGH
   MID/LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL.

   ..GUYER.. 05/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40269816 40570020 42530016 42559853 41369813 41049740
               40599662 38949684 38959798 40029791 40269816 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2016
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