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Mesoscale Discussion 563
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0563
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 148...

   VALID 090101Z - 090230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 148
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW 148 EXCEPT FOR
   NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.  INCREASING CONVECTION IN
   SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH 02Z.  STORMS
   IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF LINEAR THUNDERSTORM SEGMENTS HAVE EVOLVED
   FROM ACTIVITY IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WW 148 OVER THE PAST FEW
   HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS. 
   LOCAL EXTENSIONS OF WW 148 HAVE BEEN MADE FOR WISE AND PARKER
   COUNTIES IN TEXAS...AND ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS MAY BE NEEDED AS
   STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO THE EAST OF THESE STORMS MAY LEAD TO A
   DECREASING SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHORTLY...AND LENDS
   SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS INTO
   NORTH TEXAS. 

   FARTHER SOUTHWEST...AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
   PAST HOUR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE NEAR/EAST OF EL PASO TEXAS.  THESE STORMS ARE
   IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED FROM
   PREVIOUS CONVECTION...AND THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KNOT DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A HAIL OR
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 02Z. 
   BEYOND THAT POINT...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE
   A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED
   DUE TO DECREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30800351 31150312 31540239 32110160 32580104 32990035
               33289951 33389851 33529788 33769758 33779724 33539698
               33129714 32749755 32429803 31939861 31329947 30840011
               30560076 30160159 29970205 29930234 30140283 30320325
               30500353 30800351 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2016
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