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Mesoscale Discussion 564
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR NW OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111846Z - 112045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING
   FROM W-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO THE NE TX PANHANDLE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
   THE MAIN SVR THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL KS. A WW IS LIKELY BEFORE 21Z TO COVER
   THESE THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW W OF HYS. A
   DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THIS LOW TO DDC THEN SWWD TOWARDS AMA. A
   COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW...STRETCHING SWWD TO GUY IN
   THE OK PANHANDLE AND THEN WWD INTO FAR NE NM. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
   THE DRYLINE HAS QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AMIDST
   DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MODERATE TO STRONG SLY WINDS. 

   18Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEPLY MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LITTLE
   CINH REMAINING. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
   SINCE 12Z WHILE BACKING SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINED
   STEEP /GREATER THAN 8 DEG C PER KM/.

   LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL
   PLAINS WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE LIFT.
   THIS LARGE SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
   BOUNDARIES AND STRONG HEATING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION...LIKELY NEAR 21Z. 

   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS. CONVECTIVE MODE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. IF STORMS ARE
   ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL KS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A GRADUALLY
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.
   HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES NUMEROUS STORMS WITH INTERACTING
   OUTFLOWS AND THE EWD PROGRESSING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT FAVORING UPSCALE
   GROWTH WITH A RESULTANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   39009991 39479970 39199854 38579764 37959735 37609757
               37289809 36859894 36169956 35429994 35280076 35620101
               36010100 37250002 38339974 39009991 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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