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Mesoscale Discussion 564
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151...152...

   VALID 090417Z - 090545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   151...152...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME
   TORNADO RISK...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
   OVERNIGHT WITHIN A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS. 

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES 151/152 CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 1AM
   CDT RESPECTIVELY...AND TEMPORALLY EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 150 IS
   CURRENTLY VALID UNTIL 05Z/MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL TEMPORAL EXTENSIONS
   OR PERHAPS A REPLACEMENT WATCH COULD BE NEEDED BEFORE 05Z/MIDNIGHT
   CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND
   SUSTAINED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
   SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED FRONTAL CORRIDOR SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG
   TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST
   NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS THROUGH LATE EVENING AND EARLY IN THE
   OVERNIGHT. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MOST COMMON THREAT PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS...WHERE A NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
   SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN RELATIVELY CLOSE
   PROXIMITY /JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST/ TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL SRH IS MAXIMIZED /LIKELY 300+ M2 PER S2 EFFECTIVE SRH AS
   SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS/. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME
   SEVERE HAIL WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FARTHER NORTHEAST
   INTO SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR NORTHEAST KS WHERE A MORE QUASI-LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

   ..GUYER.. 05/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38990014 39699846 40189771 40999738 41139635 40489600
               39359693 38819748 38329995 38990014 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2016
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