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Mesoscale Discussion 564
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 091740Z - 091845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LARGE
   HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX HAS ROTATED
   INTO SERN CO AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
   SPREAD NEWD INTO NWRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS SFC-3KM
   VALUES ARE APPROACHING 9 C/KM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF SERN CO/NERN
   NM.  VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH AN EXPANDING/DEEPENING CU FIELD
   ALONG THE SERN CO/NERN NM BORDER RIDGE...NWD ALONG THE SANGRE DE
   CRISTO RANGE WEST OF PUB.  OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUPERCELLS
   SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN FAVORABLY MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME AND TRACK NNEWD
   AHEAD OF DEVELOPING/SURGING SFC LOW.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE MOST
   ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS.

   ..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38300363 39130322 39500262 39360164 38610131 37140171
               37170350 38300363 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2015
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